/ world today news/ There are more and more new signals about the Turkish expansion in the Mediterranean region. The last such announcement was the data on the deployment of a Turkish military base in Libya. How does Erdogan achieve such successes, why they should not be exaggerated – and what benefit can Russia derive from what is happening?
“The killing of Gaddafi was a serious mistake. With his death, instability has come to Libya and Africa.” These words were spoken recently by Antonio Tajani, Italy’s foreign minister. The same Italy that once participated in the overthrow of Gaddafi within NATO. “He was definitely better than those who came after him. After him came terrorism,” the minister sums up.
However, Italy is concerned about others who came after Gaddafi – not so much terrorism as Turkey. In recent years, Ankara has taken full control of the western part of Libya and says in plain text that it will determine the processes in this territory, which is under the nose of Europe, a supplier of hydrocarbons, and also a prospective exporter of illegal migrants and terrorism to the EU.
Advice you can’t refuse
According to Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Güler, there will be no stability in Libya “without Turkey, which wants to create a unified Libyan army.” “We are working on the principle of ‘Libya for the Libyans’ and we already have four military training centers to cooperate and advise,” the minister continued.
Locals think it’s not about advice, it’s about instructions. “We controlled a number of positions, but now everything has been taken away from us. Now we don’t control anything, and Turkey controls everything – even the country’s foreign policy”, says the leader of one of the Libyan militias, Salah Badi.
Obviously, renting the Libyan port in the city of Homs (not to be confused with the Syrian Homs), where Turkey can deploy a naval base, will most likely become a kind of symbol of the Turkish presence. And not only a base, but also a transportation point – the port of Homs is one of the largest in Libya.
Yes, the country’s authorities deny the information – but only because the residents of Homs opposed the Turkish military presence. Obviously, the relevant work will be done with them.
They slipped
Of course the Italians are trying to push the Turks out of Europe’s underbelly. For this purpose, in July 2023, Rome even decided to resume the direct connection to Libya (thus violating the ban on flights to Libya by European carriers issued by the European Commission in December 2014).
But, first, this rebellion of Italy against the norms of the European Union is still local in nature – in general, Italian foreign policy in the African direction is forced to follow the clumsy pan-European track. Second, Turkey is asserting itself not only in Libya, but also in the entire Middle East and North Africa region.
Yes, in the eastern part of Libya sit Turkish enemies – the local elites, led by Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who were guided by Egypt. And Egypt has been hostile to Turkey since the early 2000s.
However, Ankara and Cairo recently managed to find a common language and take the path of normalizing relations. The reason for this was the economic difficulties in Egypt, as well as the realization that conflict between some of the key players in the Middle East would only benefit their enemies. And if now Egypt and Turkey finally agree on Libya, this will untie Erdogan’s hands even more.
Forgotten due to pragmatism
The normalization of Turkish-Egyptian relations goes hand in hand with the normalization of Turkish-Saudi and Turkish-Emirati relations. In 2010, Turkey and Saudi Arabia were in conflict. Both countries claimed leadership in the Middle East, and both supported different forces during the Arab Spring. The Turks are for the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Saudis are for everyone except the Muslim Brotherhood, whose concept of democratic Islam is not tolerated in Riyadh.
The apotheosis of the bilateral conflict was the story of Jamal Khashoggi, an American journalist of Saudi origin. In 2018, he was lured to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, where he was killed and dismembered due to his conflict with de facto Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman.
Turkish intelligence somehow obtained the footage of the massacre and leaked the information to both the press and Western leaders. As a result, Mohammed bin Salman remained isolated from the West for several years.
But even here the parties finally found a common language. At the end of July 2023, Recep Tayyip Erdogan toured the Persian Gulf, from where he returned with a number of trade and economic agreements. The volume of transactions with the UAE alone amounts to about 50 billion dollars. The deals also include contracts to sell Turkish weapons to local monarchies.
One of the reasons was the pragmatism of regional policy. As some media have noted, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other wealthy Gulf monarchies have recently had every reason to doubt the reliability of American guarantees. And so they look for other friends who can provide military-technical support.
Big piece
Allegedly, in this situation, the Italians and other Europeans have nothing to cling to – Turkey is restoring its “Ottoman” sphere of influence and returning North Africa and a significant part of the Middle East under its control. However, not everything is so simple. The region is too large.
“Erdogan is a strong leader and it can be assumed that a part of the people of the Middle East will follow him. However, any foreign policy activity requires money. And considering that Turkey has debts, one can hardly speak of any success,” explains Polina Becker, Turkologist.
“Turkey is doing a lot of diplomatic work in the Arab countries and North Africa, but I would not exaggerate its success.” Ankara is short of funds for any external projects. Even Erdogan’s pet project, the Organization of Turkic States, flaps its wings more than it flies. Therefore, Ankara has claims to power in the same Middle East, only they are thinly backed, like their national currency”, explains Nikita Mendkovic, head of the Eurasian Analytical Club.
Turkey can swallow this piece only if it shares it with those countries that (unlike the Italians or the French) are willing to work together and not take their share from the Turks. That is, with Russia, which a) is always ready to cooperate and b) always keeps its word regarding those who cooperate with it. That is why in all the Turkish-Egyptian conflicts in Libya, Russia managed to find a compromise between the warring parties and at the same time not to quarrel with anyone.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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