/ world today news/ Two extremely tense weeks are ahead for Turkey – on May 28, the second round of the presidential elections will be held. It is not difficult to predict the winner – Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who fell short of half a percent of the votes to win in the first round, will ultimately retain his position.
And it’s not just that on May 14 he beat the united opposition candidate Kemal Kulçdaroğlu by four and a half percentage points – even though Turkey is split roughly in half on Erdogan, his supporters still have a tangible advantage (and most of those , who voted for the third candidate, the nationalist Sinan Ogan, who won five percent, will go to Erdogan). This was shown by the results of the simultaneously held parliamentary elections, in which Erdogan’s coalition received 49.9%. A little less than half? Yes, but in the end it will help preserve the parliamentary majority, especially since the opposition bloc only won 35%. And even if you add to them ten percent of the pro-Kurdish and leftist forces, the difference with the ruling parties is decent. So Erdogan has already won one victory – retaining control of parliament – and it is almost improbable that he will now achieve a second.
When we are surprised by the intensity of the Turkish presidential election, we simply forget that this is only the third direct presidential election in Turkish history. The first were in 2014 (and then a president was elected, who had a mostly symbolic meaning), and the second were in 2018, when the first direct election of a real head of state was held.
That is, Turks have not only supported Erdogan since 2003 – when he came to power as prime minister – they also support his proposed reforms aimed at returning and strengthening a strong presidential power. He was supported in 2016 during the coup, a year later during the referendum on the transition to a presidential republic and in 2018 in the last presidential election (which he won in the first round, winning 52%). Now he has received slightly less than half of the votes, but in the second round he will prove his right to be the leader of the country.
In addition to the strengths of Erdogan himself, the heterogeneity of the opposition also played to his advantage – Kemalist republicans, supporters of the secular state, liberal nationalists, pro-Kurdish forces united against him, plus the uncharismatic and inexperienced Kulçdaroğlu stood at the head of the whole this union, also promising to abandon the presidential form of government. However, Erdogan’s victory will not be easy – and now everyone is worried about what will happen after May 28. Will the opposition recognize victory or will we see an attempt to organize a Turkish Maidan?
The option to refuse to recognize Erdoğan’s victory exists – the opposition can organize protests, take people to the streets. But this practically cannot lead to a real coup – Erdogan will not disperse the crowds and they will not storm his residence. The army, which used to be a key player, has long since lost its former influence on politics, and Islamic influence in it has grown significantly under Erdogan (previously, the army opposed overly liberal governments and prevented the Islamization of power). And most importantly: Erdogan knows how to talk to the street, to the people, knows how to mobilize his supporters (which was also shown by the failed coup attempt in the summer of 2015). That is, it will not be possible to outplay Erdogan on the street, and the Turkish opposition will not want to bring the situation in the divided society to real civil unrest and will be afraid.
The possible influence of the West should not be overestimated – in the sense of a push towards the Maidan. Even the openly pro-Western forces in Turkish politics are still not puppets of the US or Europe – Turks have pride and a clear understanding of national sovereignty. So attempts by the West to provoke something in the style of the Ukrainian Maidan in Turkey are practically out of the question.
At the same time, the topic of foreign interference in the elections will play out more and more in the next two weeks – Kulçdaroğlu, with his recent statement about “Russian interference”, showed where he will hit the opposition. And Erdogan, of course, will not miss the opportunity to accuse the West of supporting the opposition, adding to the already strong anti-American sentiment among his supporters.
At the same time, the West will continue to shoot itself in the foot, both with statements in support of Kulçdaroğlu and with assurances that Erdogan’s victory will be a victory for the world’s autocrats in the form of Putin and Xi Jinping. Instead of recognizing the objective course of history (part of which is the strengthening of Turkey and the restoration of the role of Islam in its political life), the West tries to stop it by attaching “terrible” but no longer frightening labels to those leaders who dare to lead their countries through sovereignty and reliance on national values and interests. Pointless efforts – and not only with regard to Russia or Turkey.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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