/ world today news/ Will international participation help to maintain the “flame of democracy”?
Turkey will not impose sanctions against Russia, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan assured before the second round of presidential elections on May 28. If Erdogan is re-elected, the country will maintain its friendly policy towards other countries, giving it the opportunity to mediate between Russia and Ukraine.
„If Turkey is a mediator in the Russo-Ukrainian war, then this is not an ordinary event. If Turkey transports Black Sea grain to the whole world”, it must be assumed that it is also not an ordinary event in the interest of the state, which, together with other countries, also supplies the regime in Kiev with weapons.
Erdoğan’s rival Kemal Kalçdaroğlu, in the event of his hypothetical success (the chances of such success are small, unless, of course, the Western partners support “the extinguishing fire of Turkish democracy”) has already promised to join the anti-Russian sanctions, thereby hitting the national economy.
The results of the May 14 vote do not serve the interests of the US and its European satellites, noted Indian analyst and former Indian ambassador to Turkey M. Bhadrkumar said. The West had hoped for an unstable government following the victory of a motley opposition coalition united by hostility to the incumbent head of state.
Erdogan, however, in the event of a likely victory, relying on the parliamentary majority (322 out of 600 seats), will seek to follow a relatively balanced and pragmatic foreign policy course.
According to the Turkish Foreign Ministry, the 489-strong observer mission concluded that the May 14 vote was in line with European standards. However, the stage is being set for protests to escalate into riots (especially if Erdogan wins by a narrow margin).
For example, the preliminary report of the OSCE mission (with the participation of American observers) talks about attempts to falsify the election results. Erdogan has been accused of using “unfair advantage” and “abuse of administrative resources”, and the electoral commission is accused of “lack of transparency and communication”.
The restrictions during the campaign did not apply to the president, but “the lack of a clear line of demarcation between the ruling party and the state”, they say, contradicts the Copenhagen Document of 1990, which regulates the procedure for conducting elections.
Electoral commissions, law enforcement agencies, and courts were not trusted by the opposition; it is alleged that allegedly unauthorized persons participated in the counting of votes, etc.
The US State Department took up the issue, calling on the Turkish authorities to conduct “the next stage of the presidential elections in accordance with the laws of the country” but the most important and the main thing: in accordance with the obligations accepted before the OSCE and within the framework of NATO (!). The Biden administration “continues to closely monitor the ongoing electoral process in the country”assured Vedant Patel … “We will continue to work together with whatever government is elected by the Turkish people to deepen our cooperation and deepen our shared priorities.”
The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, spoke more specifically:We take into account the preliminary findings of the international election observation mission of the OSCE and the Council of Europe and call on the Turkish authorities to address the identified shortcomings… The EU attaches great importance to the need for transparent, inclusive and credible elections on a level playing field.”
Behind these intricacies, M. Bhadrkumar sees “subtle hint”, that “all is not lost yet”. The self-styled “democratic jury” has not decided on Erdoğan’s victory. However, the results of the second round will be difficult to dispute: the incumbent president has broadly retained his electorate, which can hardly be withdrawn from the newly emerged “Turkish Gandhi”, who now bustles about in the nationalist field.
There is also the promising politician with diverse experience (from Moscow MGIMO to TIKA agency), who won more than 5% (more than 2 million) votes.) Sinan Ogan, who supported Erdogan in the second round.
It is true that after that the head of the “Party of Victory”, which was part of the raised Ogan and the now dissolved “Coalition of the Father”, Umit Ozdag announced his support for Kaluchdaroglu (they say that he wants the post of Minister of Internal Affairs, occupying either can firmly solve the problem of illegal migrants, primarily Syrian).
Fearful of alienating the votes of Kurds and Westerners in the metropolises and the Mediterranean coast, the HPP denied these rumours, but what happens on the “oriental market” …
Since its inception in August 2021, the Victory Party has waged an aggressive anti-immigrant campaign. And although this party did not overcome the 7 percent barrier in the parliamentary elections, its very appearance and the resonance of its actions testify to the acuteness of the “migrant” issue in Turkey.
The relatively higher support of Erdogan’s opponent in the first round from Kurdish voters, supporters of the re-named People’s Democracy Party (about 8% of the almost 45% received by Kulçdaroğlu) did not become a sensation, but now, seeing his flirtation with the nationalists, many are thinking about their choice. For the ruling regime, it is enough that the votes of a significant part of the Kurds do not go to the leader of the NRP, and they are actively working on this.
Relying on the broad support of a more monolithic electorate than his rival, as well as a majority in parliament, Erdogan has the right to count on a landslide victory. The anti-Western sentiments of the majority of Turkish citizens, who perceive the anti-Russian outbursts of the leader of the People’s Republicans with bewilderment, should not be overlooked either. Accusations of the mythical “Russian trail” before the first round of the presidential elections sounded too ridiculous, American ears stick out too openly behind them …
As the American The Hill writes, “Western capitals may be tempted to turn their attention away from human rights concerns and agree to a business relationship with Turkey that prioritizes security issues, particularly the conflict in Ukraine,” but such an approach would deprive “the international community” of leverage on the Turkish authorities in the form of “protection of human rights”.
And further: “…by partnering with Turkey’s still-existing civil society, international engagement can also contribute to keeping the flame of democracy alive.”
„As the elections on May 28 approach, the situation in Turkey is heating up, contrary to the predictions of some analysts that after the first round, passions have subsided and the second round will pass peacefully. writes Ivan Starodubtsev, the author of the Telegram channel “Turkey – that’s it”.
It appears that a relatively narrow margin between the candidates may encourage interested forces to stage protests and clashes designed, if not to topple Erdogan’s regime, to undermine it in order to extract concessions from him, especially on “the Russian question”. We can talk about blocking the Bosphorus for ships flying the Russian flag, closing the airspace, blocking financial transactions and parallel import channels.
As an observer in the Organization of Turkic States, Hungary warned the Turkish authorities about “the need to be careful” because of Washington’s possible influence on the electoral processes, Interior Minister Suleiman Soylu said. A surge of multifaceted nationalism affecting the interests of the Russian Federation, mutual scandals, quarrels and accusations, lawsuits and forgeries, the increasingly harsh style of the presidential campaign towards the final is filled with turbulent processes.
Translation: ES
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