For his debut Ekrem Imamoglu even the AKP is “working”, the head of the polling company MetroPOLL declares to “Vima”, Ozer Senjarwho in the latest survey published four days before the elections shows the mayor of Istanbul leading with 39.2% against Murat Kurum which collects 30.4%.
When the undecideds are distributed, Imamoglu gathers 49% and Kouroum 37% – the percentage of undecideds, those who do not answer or choose a protest vote amounts to 18.1%.
And women vote for Imamoglu. “More than 40% of women express the intention to vote for him, while only 30% are leaning towards Kurum” Senjar explains about the election contest in the Metropolitan Municipality of Istanbul – 11 million voters are coming to his polls at this time.
Sixty-four million voters in total have the right to vote in the 1,393 municipalities of the Turkish territory, in order to elect the candidates of 34 parties. Five hundred and ninety thousand people will work for election security, according to the interior ministry, from 7 or 8 in the morning to 4 or 5 in the afternoon, depending on the local sunset time. Throughout the day today, the sale of alcohol and the carrying of weapons (except for security forces) are prohibited, while all entertainment centers will remain closed.
The city-“prize”
Since the polls opened in the morning, no one is quite sure who will be the winner in the “prize” city of Istanbul, despite MetroPOLL’s findings.
“The AKP also helped Imamoglu,” the well-known academic and pollster claims during our discussion. “The AKP ran a tough campaign, using everything it had, including government resources and ministers, and making Imamoglu appear as a victim, which voters tend to sympathize with. Looking back to other crucial elections (the 1994 municipal elections in Istanbul, the 2017 referendum and the 2023 presidential election), we can see how the mistakes of Imamoglu’s party have helped Erdogan succeed.
In the last few days, however, the two candidates “seem to have stabilized their votes”, underlines Senjar, who has been steadily watching Imamoglu’s votes increase over the last two months, “absorbing 64% of the voters of the Good Party and 46% of his voters pro-Kurdish DEM”. In addition, Imamoglu “claims the support of 7% of AKP voters and 10% of Nationalist Action Party (MHP) voters.”
The largest group among undecideds is made up of AKP, MHP and New Welfare Party voters, according to MetroPOLL. “If the ruling bloc manages to convince these people to vote, the gap between Imamoglu and Kurum can be closed,” the head of the polling company points out. Also, the undecideds of the pro-Kurdish DEM who “at the last moment will decide not to vote for their candidate, will affect the balance”.
In all three surveys conducted by MetroPOLL since February, the expectation that Imamoglu will win is steadily rising (50%), while confidence in Kurum’s chances is falling (32%). That voters see Imamoglu as the winner “is likely to attract even more voters, keeping Qurum’s supporters from the ballot box. The ruling bloc’s efforts, DEM’s calls to vote its own candidates and the shift of undecided AKP and MHP voters to Kurum may close the gap slightly but not enough for Kurum to win,” Senjar adds.
The election race
Is there anything that could completely overturn Imamoglu’s lead? “If at the same time Kurds do not go to the polls, opposition voters abstain (as a side effect of defeat in the 2023 presidential elections), and supporters of the New Prosperity Party vote for Kurum, then the current situation can be reversed. Nothing is impossible in politics” answers Ozer Senjar.
Meanwhile, Kurum is 5.3 points behind Imamoglu even according to the latest poll conducted by AKP.
Election research in 17 metropolitan cities by ASAL Research shows that the election race will be narrowly decided (1%-2%) in Antalya, Adana, Ordu, Bursa, Eskisehir and Balikesir. According to the ASAL survey, the election results in Hatay “may upset the CHP” and in Ordu “may be a surprise for the AKP.”
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