In two months time Turkey will hold perhaps the most important parliamentary and presidential elections in years. For voters, there is a clear choice: continue with a strongman in the form of incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan? Or back to a parliamentary system with a prime minister under the leadership of the opposition? The elections follow a relatively short time after the devastating earthquake. Will there also be a political landslide on May 14?
“Dit de belangrijkste verkiezingen in meer dan zeventig jaar, als je kijkt naar wat er op het spel staat: de keuze tussen een autoritair presidentieel systeem of een terugkeer naar een parlementaire democratie”, stelt Berk Esen. Hij is adjunct-hoogleraar politieke wetenschappen en internationale betrekkingen aan de Turkse Sabanci-universiteit.
“De oppositie is er voor het eerst in is geslaagd om zich te verenigen achter één kandidaat. Dat is een hele prestatie, gezien de onderlinge verschillen. Voeg daar bij de economische malaise en de nasleep van de dodelijke aardbevingen en je krijgt de moeilijkste verkiezingen in jaren voor Erdogan.”
De oppositiepartijen zitten in een samenwerkingsverband: de Alliantie van de Natie. Hun presidentskandidaat is Kemal Kilicdaroglu, de partijvoorzitter van de CHP. Hij krijgt tijdens zijn campagne gezelschap van Ekrem Imamoglu en Mansur Yavas, burgermeesters namens de CHP van respectievelijk Istanboel en Ankara. Zij worden gerekend tot de populairste politici van Turkije.
De Alliantie van de Natie
- De Republikeinse Volkspartij (CHP)
- De Goede Partij (IYI)
- De Partij van Democratie en Vooruitgang (DEVA)
- De Partij voor de Toekomst (GP)
- Partij voor Gelukzaligheid (Saadet)
- De Democratische Partij (DP)
Political system in Turkey ‘reset’
According to the opposition, things must change in Turkey. The big problem, according to them: Erdogan’s presidential system. There is now too much power in the hands of one person, they say. As a result, judges and the central bank are no longer independent and ministries no longer dare to make their own decisions.
According to Esen, the past five years have shown that Erdogan’s presidential system has backfired. “The economy has deteriorated and incompetent yes-men have ended up in many positions in government. As a result, the problems are piling up. In this situation, there is a route to victory for the opposition. Not an easy route, but it is there.”
The opposition parties want to ‘reset’ the political system in Turkey and return to a parliamentary democracy. In it, a prime minister is the head of the government. The president remains the head of state, but regains a ceremonial position without real power. Good governance must become a priority again, and cronyism and corruption must end. The parties also want to restore freedom of the press and end censorship by the government.
The Century of Turkey
Erdogan has been in power for almost twenty years. First as prime minister, then as president and after the introduction of the presidential system, as mighty president. In his own words, he is participating as a candidate for the last time.
Later this year the republic will celebrate its 100th anniversary and Erdogan wants to kick off what should become the ‘Century of Turkey’.
In the next hundred years, he believes, Turkey should become an example for the world when it comes to democratic, economic and technical development. Erdogan and his AKP want to write a new constitution for this. Turkey also wants to spread democracy, peace, development and prosperity around the world, according to the party’s vision document. The first focus is on reconstruction as quickly as possible after the earthquake, the president said on Friday.
Erdogan’s party, like the opposition, works together with other parties in an alliance: the People’s Alliance. If those parties together win more than 300 seats in the parliamentary elections, they will retain their majority.
Erdogan himself must score at least 50 percent plus 1 of the vote to be re-elected as president. If he (or one of the other candidates) does not make it, a second round will follow on 28 May.
De Volksalliantie
- De Partij voor Rechtvaardigheid en Ontwikkeling (APK)
- De Partij van de Nationalistische Beweging (MHP)
- De Grote Eenheidspartij (BBP)
‘Kilicdaroglu is the person to relinquish power’
Louis Fishman, adjunct professor at Brooklyn College in New York, has been closely following Turkish politics for years. He sees it as an advantage that the opposition has put forward an opposite of Erdogan with Kilicdaroglu.
“Erdogan has taken a lot of power in recent years and parliament is really only there to carry out his wishes. The success of the opposition in the 2019 local elections shows that voters are tired of Erdogan pulling all the strings Kilicdaroglu is more modest and seems the right person to return the country to a parliamentary system, because then, if he were to become president, he would in fact relinquish his power.”
Fishman also believes the opposition is better able to win Kurdish votes. The Kurdish-oriented HDP is expected to receive 9 to 12 percent of the vote. If this bloc rallies behind one of the presidential candidates, that person is all but guaranteed a majority, and perhaps even a first-round win.
Doubts whether Erdogan will be allowed to participate
Whatever the result, the elections may have a tail. On Friday, President Erdogan signed the decision for the elections on May 14, more than two months ahead of schedule. He did so on the basis of Article 116 of the Constitution.
But because Erdogan has already been elected president twice before (in 2014 and in 2018), he cannot be a presidential candidate again on the basis of the same article. Only if parliament decides to hold the elections ahead of schedule will Erdogan be able to run a third time. The AKP maintains that everything changed after the introduction of the presidential system. However, the Constitution does not make that distinction.
There are (yet) no signals that Turkey’s highest court will take action on this point. The opposition response is contradictory. The six-party bloc said at the end of January that it would not accept it if Erdogan rejoined. At the same time, Kilicdaroglu said his party will not thwart Erdogan. That wouldn’t make sense, he said. “No one will do anything about it.”
Professor Esen also has no doubt that Erdogan will simply participate, even though the basic road says that this is not possible. “It is indicative of the lawlessness that has developed under his regime.”
