Turkey “woke up” on April 1 unexpectedly – even for its advocates – to a completely new, unprecedented condition. Last Sunday’s polls showed the Republican People’s Party (CHP) – which polls showed in the 2023 presidential elections as an unfortunate winner – first after half a century with a margin of 2.14 points, in a historic defeat for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP ) but also the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan personally.
With a turnout of 78%, lower than that of last year’s presidential elections, 48 million of the 61.5 million voters who went to the polls in Turkish territory chose the CHP in 35 municipalities, including Istanbul, Ankara and in traditional “strongholds” of the AKP, which lost votes in almost all districts, including most of the provinces it won. The ruling party’s defeat was overwhelming, especially in Ankara (its difference Mansour Javas from the AKP candidate was 28.76 points). In Istanbul the difference of the triumphant Ekrem Imamoglou against him Murat Kurum reached one million votes.
“Sheer failure”
“Is this the beginning of the end for Erdogan? Did this happen on Sunday in Turkey?’ wonders the international press, seeing that Imamoglu’s triumph in Istanbul has automatically made him the person in whom Turkish voters see their potential next president.
“If presidential elections were held today and Erdogan had Imamoglu or Yavas against him, he would lose it” argues, speaking to “Vima”, the Turkish university student Tanju Tosunwhich considers the March 31 results a “clear failure” for Erdogan. “Erdogan is synonymous with AKP. If voters are moving away from the AKP, that means they are also moving away from it. In my opinion, this leak will continue for some time to come.” emphasizes the professor of Political Science, estimating that in the upcoming presidential elections Imamoglu will be the winner, as he is “inclusive and unifying”. It predicts that “as president, Imamoglu will end polarization, steps will be taken towards the democratization of the country and its relations with the West will improve”.
Erdogan, under the shock of defeat, “likely to revise the Constitution”although “the problem of the country today is the economic crisis”. If, however, he chooses the path of constitutional reform, “there will be little response from society. In the next period, what we will see from Erdogan is likely to become more authoritarian and intensify the tutelage of the central government at the expense of the municipalities. He’s a leader who doesn’t like to lose.” adds the Turkish professor.
Climate change
“The political climate of the country since April 1 has changed drastically” the veteran Turkish analyst confirms in “Vima”. Murat Getkin, believing that last Sunday’s municipal elections may reflect “the beginning of the end” for the Turkish president. Why was he defeated? “First of all, people said ‘enough’ to his economic policies, the high cost of living, the very low pensions, the low minimum wages. Second, citizens do not like the idea of unfair competition. Erdogan mobilized the entire Cabinet to defeat Imamoglu. And the world reacted.”
He contributed to the defeat of the AKP “the loss of hope among the working classes and pensioners, who make up a fifth of all voters, to whom Erdogan no longer has much to offer” points out Getkin, at the same time expressing the certainty that the election result “it will make life more difficult for Erdogan”, including his goal to change the Constitution so that he can be elected to another term in the presidency.
Beyond the “deterioration of living conditions, the “hypocrisy on the Palestinian issue” cost the AKP and the Turkish president electorally, argues Merich Senjuzformer editor-in-chief at the newspaper “Cumhuriyet” and now at the Turkish edition of the “Independent”, since, despite Erdogan’s consistent pro-Palestinian rhetoric, “Ankara continued behind the scenes trade with Israel”. This contributed, he adds, to the “take-off” of his Islamist New Welfare Party Fatih Erbakan in place of the third party. It is also no coincidence that immediately after the election, the first press release of the Turkish government was to refute the Israeli media’s claim that Turkish officials had sent a message asking for improved Turkish-Israeli relations.
The role of the Kurds
Equally crucial, according to Senuz, were the good examples of writing left by the successful CHP municipal authorities in Istanbul and Ankara, breaking the “seal” of Turkish society that “the CHP cannot exercise good municipal governance” proved to be equally crucial in the electoral contest. – had come second in the 1984 municipal elections and collapsed four years later due to massive corruption scandals in many municipalities it controlled.
Critical to the CHP’s triumph, especially in Istanbul, the Turkish analyst also considers the pro-Kurdish Democracy Party (DEM), which was targeted through its winning candidate in Van, causing political and social unrest. “Through the electoral alliance made tacitly, in the framework of an urban consensus, the DEM managed to overwhelmingly direct its organized voters towards the CHP and Imamoglu.”
“He will work hard”
“The repressive political discourse of the AKP that often accompanies economic issues” led, among other things, to his defeat by an unexpectedly large margin, the professor points out in “Vima” Alim Yilmaz. The fact that Ekrem Imamoglu, “a factor with increasing social recognition, it evaluates economic issues accurately was also a crucial element to increase the CHP’s vote share in Istanbul but also in the whole of Turkey.”
However, “It is hard to imagine that the rise of the CHP will be reflected in the national elections that will be held in about four years from now” is the assessment made by the professor, predicting that Erdogan in the future “will work hard to reverse recent results.”
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