Taiwan’s equity king TSMC (2330)’s performance in January was better than the legal person’s expectations. Foreign and domestic institutions once again set off a wave of upward revisions to the target price, with the range raised to 740~785 yuan. The legal person also estimated that the first quarter per share Net earnings after tax (EPS) will be around 8 yuan.
In the latest investment report issued by domestic legal entities, it is pointed out that TSMC predicts that the adjustment of semiconductor inventory in wafer factories will end in 2023, and the inventory will return to a healthy level. It is expected that 2024 will be a year of healthy growth for TSMC, which will be particularly beneficial. N3 technology continues to grow strongly, and market N5 technology and AI-related demand are growing.
TSMC’s HPC demand growth rate will surpass that of mobile phones in 2023. As the development of AI becomes more clear, HPC will continue to drive TSMC’s performance growth from 2024 to 2025. TSMC’s EPS is estimated to be 36 yuan this year. Analysts said that capital expenditures in 2023 will be approximately US$30.448 billion, an annual decrease of 16%. Capital expenditures in 2024 are estimated to be US$28-32 billion, ranging from an annual decrease of 8.2% to an annual increase of 4.9%. In terms of capital intensity, it will be 34~36% in 2024. It is expected that capital intensity will remain at around 30% in the next few years.
Depreciation expenses in 2023 will be 532.1 billion yuan, an annual increase of 21.7%, which is less than the previously expected annual increase of 25-30%. Due to the control of capital expenditures, depreciation expenses will mainly come from N3 mass production; depreciation expenses are estimated to increase by 30% annually in 2024 .
In addition, as semiconductor inventories return to healthy levels by the end of 2023, demand for NB/PC and smartphone terminals is showing signs of stabilizing. Although TSMC’s first-quarter revenue is expected to be affected by seasonal revisions to smartphone demand, HPC-related demand can It is expected to offset some of the unfavorable factors; in terms of gross profit margin, the capacity utilization rate in the first quarter remained high, and the proportion of smartphone-related revenue in revenue declined. The gross profit margin is expected to be the same as the previous quarter, and the single-quarter EPS is estimated to be about 8 yuan.
And when TSMC’s January revenue was better than expected, all domestic and foreign institutions maintained buy ratings. Among them, foreign-funded Morgan Stanley Securities raised the target price from 698 yuan to 758 yuan; China Trust Investment Consulting also raised its target price. It was raised from 698 yuan to 740 yuan; Qunyi Investment Consulting raised it from 680 yuan to 785 yuan in one breath, which is also the highest target price given by institutional legal persons in the past year.
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2024-02-18 05:07:50
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