Wen‧Hong Baoshan
The January 12 TSMC bill meeting is surely the key to whether the weighted index can sustain the support of the quarterly line. At last year’s third quarter law meeting, President Wei Zhejia predicted that supply chain inventory would not return to a healthy level until the first half of 2023.
At that time, China’s dynamic zero compensation policy had not yet left the market. Now the Chinese dynamic compensation of “yin” is fast. It is estimated that after the end of the two March sessions, the peak of the first wave of epidemics will almost begin to cool off. Refer to China’s global purchasing managers index for three consecutive years. It is below the prosperity and decline line of less than 50 and is estimated to return above the prosperity and decline line in May. Therefore, the media has viewed TSMC’s capital expenditures positively this year as it is expected to will approach 40 billion US dollars (38-39 billion US dollars), creating another story A new high, with an annual growth rate of 5.6~8.3% .
Foreign capital bearish on TSMC’s growth this year
In fact, in TSMC’s three-year US$100 billion CAPEX plan, it will account for US$30 billion in 2021 and US$36 billion in 2022. If final CAPEX in 2023 is US$40 billion US dollars, the total will be 106 billion US dollars TSMC’s original plan.
It’s just that repeated orders placed in response to supply chain bottlenecks in 2021 and the abrupt shutdown of Shanghai in 2022 reduced TSMC’s originally estimated capital expenditure of $40-44 billion by 10-18%. dollars in 2022. This gap has made foreign investors bearish on TSMC’s performance this year as a key driver of growth.
Chen Jiayi, semiconductor industry analyst at Citigroup Global Securities, pointed out that PC and smartphone orders have been quite slow since the second half of 2022, and there is no sign of customers replenishing.
The demand for smartphones in the Android camp continues to decline, and Apple will also enter the off-season for the delivery of new and old models, will drop by 5% and 15%, respectively, will wait until the fourth quarter to re- drive the growth rate of annual growth due to the volume increase of the three-nanometer process. In 2024, due to the improvement of the product mix due to the mass production of the three-nanometer process, profits will strongly rebound by more than 30%.
Stock prices fall in the first quarter for three consecutive years
From a financial point of view, it is estimated that there will be no exciting news for TSMC in 2022. What investors want to know is that the share price has the function of price discovery in advance of the first quarter-half performance, so at what stage does the current share price reflect?
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, TSMC’s share price has been revised from one point high to one point low in the first quarter. In January 2022, it fell from a high of 679 yuan to a low of 518 yuan, a decline of -23.71%. In January 2022, it fell directly from a high of 688 yuan in the third quarter. low of 555 yuan in the first quarter, a decline of -19.33%, TSMC fell in the first quarter for three consecutive years, so will history repeat itself in the first quarter of 2023?
The author believes that the possibility is not large. From the point of view of advanced manufacturing process, the main contributor to TSMC’s revenue in 2020 is seven nanometers, accounting for about 33% of revenue. However, the market has started to reflect the advantages of five nanometers ahead, then the stock price fell from a low of 235.5 yuan to a high of 679 yuan in January the following year, an increase of 1.88 times.
The share price range is estimated to fluctuate significantly throughout the year
Looking back now, Europe and the United States were affected by the epidemic at that time, and Taiwan blocked the first wave of COVID-19 attacks. Inspired by the benefit-to-order effect, shareholders responded too enthusiastically. By 2021, the main source of revenue contribution will be five nanometers. The annual contribution is estimated to exceed 230 billion yuan, or about 14.55% of revenue. However, after the share price of TSMC reached a high of 679 yuan at the beginning of the year, it will no longer be a new high, obviously balancing the increase in overdrafts from the previous year.
In January 2022, the sharp decline after seeing the peak of 688 actually reflects in advance that the progress of 3nm mass production is lagging behind original expectations. From this perspective, Citigroup Global’s early warning coincides with the stock price rising three months to half a year The decline in performance, so TSMC in 2023 will repeat the decline in the first quarter of the last three years? I think the chances are slim. It is assumed that TSMC’s stock price is currently in the B-2 of the big wave B rebound, and it will be a limited trend during the year.
TSMC announces 3nm mass production and plant expansion
Because the advanced manufacturing process is TSMC’s winning trick, the industry generally believes that TSMC does not need to curb capital expenditure due to short-term inventory adjustments, especially Samsung pre-announced the news of production 3nm mass market, although Samsung has not informed the public of the yield rate of 3nm, but it is undeniable that Samsung will produce three-nanometer chips for Huida, Qualcomm, IBM, Baidu and other customers, and it is estimated that it will start to supply products in 2024 at the earliest.
Therefore, TSMC, which rarely holds large-scale public events, held a mass production and three-nanometer factory expansion ceremony on December 29, 2022. There are rumors about the poor rate of return of 3nm. Chairman Liu Deyin he said that the current rate of return of 3nm is equivalent to that of the same period when 5nm was mass-produced, and it has been mass-produced.
According to media reports, semiconductor experts conservatively estimate the yield rate of 3nm to be around 60-70%, while another multinational industry analyst estimates 75-80%.
The big factory voices its position to allow TSMC to produce three nanometers
Over the past year or so, TSMC’s 3nm performance has become more difficult to increase. For this reason, it has continuously revised its 3nm design and divided into multiple versions of the 3nm family such as N3 and N3E. The picture is changed. The number of shipments of 3nm in the fourth quarter of last year was very small, and the shipment volume increased slightly in the first quarter of this year. It will not begin to increase month after month under the influence of Apple’s new iPhone 15 after the second quarter. .
Although Samsung announced the successful mass production of 3nm chips in June last year, the yield rate of 3nm is said to be only about 10~20%, so most of the next generation Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 orders of Qualcomm will go to TSMC.
At present, including Apple, Huida, Intel, AMD, Qualcomm and MediaTek have all expressed willingness to allow TSMC to produce 3nm chips. If Samsung continues to suffer from yield problems, TSMC will start mass production of 3nm in the first year It is estimated that within five years the output value of three-nanometer applications in supercomputers, clouds, data centers, high-speed networks , mobile devices and AR/VR end products of the metaverse will reach 1.5 trillion dollars.
Foreign-financed Taiwan index futures rallied ahead of the customs closure
After two days of trading on the exchange on January 3-4, as the weighted index soared, the more than 10,000 long positions held by foreign investors on Taiwan Index Futures were gradually reduced on rallies. It is estimated that before the closing date on January 17 January, It will maintain the state of slight reduction in spot prices and profit taking of Taiwan index futures rallies, ahead of the FOMC interest rate decision meeting in late January and early February.
Toxin has begun to replenish the expensive IC design group, which is against the trend of foreign capital. Among them, Alchip-KY and MediaTek are expected to be optimistic about consumer power after China reopens. Jiadeng, a land company that has suspended supply, is also on the buying list. In addition, Baosteel’s recovery has prompted Sinosteel’s prospects to look good. Although Huaxin, which has a rising nickel price, has many customers , also buy it.
Compared to the dark horse stocks at the end of the first quarter, Novatek, Ruiding, Gigabyte, ASRock, Tianyu, Jinju, ZTE, Huacheng, etc., most of them have already met the technical conditions for the market bottom. it is estimated that in the first quarter The trend can be monitored if it increases more or decreases less.
As for foreign bets such as Chailease-KY, Huahan, Dashu, Xiangshuo, HTC, Baoya and Fubon Media, etc., most of the trends are in the critical period of bottoming out and success, and need more time to test back and forth. The group of carrier boards jointly sold by foreign capital and investment fund needs more time to observe and track.
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