The Lingering Impact of Trade Policies

Former President Donald Trump’s administration implemented a series of tariffs on imported goods,including paper products. While the intent was to bolster domestic industries, the consequences have been far-reaching and, in some cases, unintended. One such outcome is the persistent,albeit fluctuating,shortage of toilet paper across the United States.

These tariffs, initially imposed in 2018 and later expanded, substantially increased the cost of imported pulp and paper, key components in toilet paper manufacturing. While some domestic manufacturers benefited, the overall effect has been higher prices for consumers and disruptions in the supply chain. this echoes similar situations seen in other sectors, like the steel industry, where tariffs aimed at protecting American jobs sometimes led to increased costs for manufacturers relying on imported steel.

“The tariffs created an artificial scarcity,” explains Emily Carter, a supply chain analyst at the american Enterprise Institute. “While domestic production increased slightly, it wasn’t enough to offset the reduced imports and increased demand, especially during periods of panic buying.” This “artificial scarcity” is a classic example of how protectionist trade policies can backfire, ultimately harming consumers and businesses alike.

Understanding the Tariff Structure

The tariffs primarily targeted countries like China, which were major suppliers of paper pulp to the U.S. market. The initial tariffs started at 10% and were later raised to 25% on certain goods. This increase made imported pulp significantly more expensive, forcing manufacturers to either absorb the cost or pass it on to consumers. This mirrors the experience of many U.S. companies that rely on imported components, who faced similar dilemmas during the tariff wars.

While the current administration has rolled back some of the tariffs, the effects are still being felt. Many companies had already adjusted their supply chains, and the cost of raw materials remains elevated compared to pre-tariff levels. This “sticky” inflation, where prices remain high even after the initial shock subsides, is a common concern among economists.

Consumer Behavior and Panic Buying

The initial wave of toilet paper shortages in early 2020, triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, exacerbated the situation. Panic buying emptied store shelves, and the supply chain struggled to keep up with the sudden surge in demand. While the initial panic subsided, the underlying issues related to tariffs and supply chain vulnerabilities remained. This phenomenon was not unique to toilet paper; similar runs on items like hand sanitizer and cleaning supplies were seen across the country.

“We saw unprecedented demand,” says John Thompson, CEO of a major U.S. paper product manufacturer. “Our factories were running at full capacity, but we still couldn’t meet the demand. The tariffs made it even harder to source the necessary materials.” This highlights the fragility of just-in-time supply chains, which are efficient under normal circumstances but vulnerable to sudden disruptions.

Even now, in 2025, sporadic shortages occur, frequently enough triggered by news of potential outbreaks or economic uncertainty. Consumers, remembering the empty shelves of 2020, tend to overstock, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of shortages. This behavior is rooted in a psychological phenomenon known as “loss aversion,” where people are more motivated to avoid losses than to acquire equivalent gains.

Economic Implications and Alternatives

The toilet paper shortage, while seemingly trivial, is symptomatic of broader economic issues related to trade policy and supply chain resilience. The tariffs have increased costs for consumers,reduced the competitiveness of some businesses,and highlighted the vulnerability of relying on global supply chains for essential goods. This has prompted a broader discussion about “reshoring” manufacturing and diversifying supply chains to reduce dependence on any single source.

As a result, there’s been a growing interest in choice solutions, such as:

• Investing in domestic pulp production: Efforts are underway to increase U.S. production of paper pulp, reducing reliance on imports. This includes government incentives and private investment in new pulp mills.
• Promoting lasting alternatives: Companies are exploring and marketing toilet paper made from recycled materials or alternative fibers like bamboo. this aligns with growing consumer demand for environmentally amiable products.
• Diversifying supply chains: Businesses are looking to diversify their sources of raw materials, reducing dependence on any single country or region. This involves building relationships with suppliers in multiple countries and regions.

The long-term solution likely involves a combination of these strategies, along with a careful reevaluation of trade policies to minimize unintended consequences for consumers and businesses.This requires a nuanced approach that balances the benefits of free trade with the need to protect domestic industries and ensure supply chain resilience.

Expert Opinions and Future Outlook

Economists are divided on the long-term impact of the tariffs. Some argue that they are necessary to protect domestic industries and promote economic self-sufficiency. Others contend that they harm consumers and disrupt global trade. This debate reflects a broader disagreement about the role of government in regulating trade and the optimal level of protectionism.

Toilet Paper Turmoil: How Trump-Era Tariffs Still Leave U.S. Shelves Bare – An Expert’s Deep Dive

Have you noticed a sporadic scarcity of toilet paper even in 2025? Dr. Evelyn Reed, a leading economist specializing in supply chain dynamics, explains why the effects of Trump-era tariffs continue to plague our bathroom routines.

WorldTodayNews.com: Dr. Reed, welcome. Let’s cut right to the chase. The article highlights persistent toilet paper shortages years after the tariffs were initially imposed. What’s the core reason this issue continues to linger?

Dr. Reed: Thank you for having me. The essential problem is the lingering impact of protectionist trade policies on a fragile supply chain. The Trump-era tariffs substantially increased the cost of imported paper pulp, a crucial raw material for toilet paper production. While some tariffs have been rolled back, the damage was done. Businesses had to adjust supply chains, and even with reduced tariff rates, the cost increases—what economists call “sticky inflation”—remain. The market hasn’t fully recovered because of it.

WorldTodayNews.com: The article mentions “artificial scarcity.” Can you elaborate on how these tariffs created this situation?

Dr. Reed: Absolutely. The tariffs discouraged imports of paper pulp, which created an imbalance in the market. Even though domestic production increased slightly, it couldn’t fully replace what was being imported, especially given increased demand. This artificially elevated the cost of raw materials beyond what they should be, creating an habitat where manufacturers were forced to raise prices or reduce production, leading to shortages, and higher costs, ultimately hurting consumers. It’s classic economic theory: restrict supply, and prices increase.

WorldTodayNews.com: We saw panic buying in 2020 that further exacerbated the situation. how has consumer behavior, notably loss aversion, played a role in the continuity of this problem?

Dr. Reed: The COVID-19 pandemic was a perfect storm for toilet paper supply chain disruption. Remember the empty shelves? that experience ingrained a sense of scarcity in the minds of consumers. This fear of running out, this loss aversion, leads to stockpiling, which further strains the supply chain. So, news of a potential outbreak or economic uncertainty can trigger panic buying and shortages, even years later, creating what’s essentially a self-fulfilling prophecy. This illustrates how a seemingly minor disruption, amplified by human behavior, can have important consequences.

WorldTodayNews.com: The article highlights the tariffs primarily targeted China. Why did this specific targeting cause such repercussions?

Dr. Reed: China was a significant supplier of paper pulp to the U.S. market.The tariffs, initially 10% and then up to 25%, made Chinese pulp considerably more expensive, forcing manufacturers to find option suppliers or absorb these increased costs. This disruption impacted the supply of raw materials and contributed to the fluctuating shortages and higher prices we continue to experience. Consequently, this demonstrated the interdependence of global trade and how disruptions in a single market can have widespread impacts.

WorldTodayNews.com: The government has rolled back some tariffs. Why aren’t we seeing a complete return to pre-tariff prices and availability?

Dr. Reed: Several factors contribute to this. First,supply chains are complex and take time to adjust once disrupted. Many companies had already locked into new, generally more expensive supply agreements. Also, the initial shock of the tariffs sparked inflationary pressures. The increased production costs are still impacting costs. These factors create an environment where prices remain high even after tariff reductions.

WorldTodayNews.com: What are some potential long-term solutions beyond simply removing tariffs?

dr. Reed: We’re seeing several promising strategies:

Investing in domestic pulp production: Encouraging manufacturers to increase U.S. production would reduce reliance on imports.

Promoting alternative materials: Supporting the use of recycled materials and alternatives like bamboo for toilet paper production can reduce costs and protect the environment.

* Diversifying supply chains: Businesses are working to broaden their sourcing to multiple countries, improving overall supply chain resilience.

A balanced approach that looks at all facets of the problem is key to making sure there are no more intermittent toilet paper shortages like we’ve been seeing recently.

WorldTodayNews.com: Some economists argue the tariffs were necessary. What are the main points of debate surrounding this issue?

Dr.Reed: There’s disagreement about the government’s role in regulating global trade. Some economists support tariffs to protect domestic industries and want to achieve economic self-sufficiency, that can create manufacturing jobs. Others argue that tariffs harm consumers and interrupt global trade, limiting access to a wide range of products at the best market prices. The debate reflects broader disagreements about the ideal balance between free trade, maintaining supply chain resilience, and government intervention.

WorldTodayNews.com: What is your outlook for toilet paper availability and prices in the coming years?

Dr. Reed: I’m cautiously optimistic. As the effects of rolling back tariffs become more apparent, and as supply chains get more flexible for dealing with disruptions, we should see the end of massive shortages and price spikes. However, it’s crucial that businesses and policymakers promote the initiatives we’ve discussed — diversified supply chains, the use of alternative materials, and investments in domestic production – to build greater resilience. The goal is to ensure that this seemingly simple product is always available and at a reasonable price.

WorldTodayNews.com: Thank you, Dr. Reed for your valuable insights.

Dr.Reed: My pleasure.

to sum up: The toilet paper story highlights the complexity of trade policy and its impact on everyday life. Are you prepared for potential shortages during periods of demand? Share your thoughts below!