In the run-up to this year’s US presidential election, Donald Trump, who again wants to become president of the US, has made sharp statements about the defense alliance NATO
Among other things, Trump has refused to guarantee that the US will keep its commitments to NATO with him at the helm, saying that it depends on how NATO treats the US. He has also said that he will not defend countries that have not “paid the bill” and that Russia could attack them.
President Joe Biden has called the statements “stupid, shameful and dangerous”.
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NUPI researcher Karsten Friis does not think the US will leave the alliance, but if it were to happen, he doubts that Nato will function without US political and military leadership.
– Nuclear deterrence, the most important foundation, will disappear. It will be very dramatic. So you can say that France and Great Britain have nuclear weapons, but it will still be something else, says Friis to Nettavisen.
Friis also points out that the USA has enormous conventional forces, and that it will be difficult to merge the armies and defenses of the various NATO countries without the USA.
– Without the USA as a bottom plank, it will be very difficult. They are also “strategic enablers” who take care of logistics. There are structural things that make the forces come together, which only the United States has. NATO will be extremely weakened without the US, if it survives at all.
– The damage has nevertheless been done
NUPI researcher Friis points out that there must be a two-thirds majority in the US Senate for an American president to be able to withdraw the country from NATO.
He believes it is unlikely that such a majority will occur. Even if the USA should formally remain a NATO country under Trump, it will still be a problem politically that he has called the USA’s commitment into question.
– The damage has nevertheless been done, and the deterrence and the idea that the US will help everyone is gone.
– But is what is written in NATO’s article five that one NATO country is an attack on all, then of little value?
– The only thing they are obliged to do is to contribute something. It says nothing about what they must contribute, and we have no sanction options. If they don’t care about what’s happening, we can’t do anything about it, says Friis, who believes it will be easier for American politicians to defend spending in NATO if Europe spends more money on its own defence.
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Friis also points out that it is important for the US to have its allies through NATO, and that the current administration of Joe Biden is concerned with this.
– It gives the US political backing. In Afghanistan, for example, it was not only the United States that intervened, but many others as well. It gives the US political legitimacy, and the allies also contribute a certain military capacity that relieves them. It is extremely important for them to have international partners, he says.
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American Deborah Lynn Kitchen-Døderlein is associate professor at the Department of Literature, Area Studies and European Languages at the University of Oslo, and is responsible for American history, culture and politics.
She will not completely rule out the chance that Trump can take the US out of NATO, if he comes to power again.
– There is always a possibility, but most likely the authority will be shared, between the president and the two houses of Congress, where different parties, or different parts of the parties, have a majority. It is rare that one party has all three, says Kitchen-Døderlein to Nettavisen.
This tripartite division of power often creates a deadlocked situation, or a “gridlock”. Such a “gridlock” does the future uncertain for an aid package for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israelwhich both President Joe Biden and the Senate are trying to implement.
However, a group of Republicans who support Trump in the House of Representatives have put themselves on the back foot.
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Kitchen-Døderlein also believes that Trump does not respect democracy, and points out that he joked from the stage that he was only going to be a dictator the first day after he came to power. She believes Trump wants to become a dictator in the United States.
– There are authoritarian people in the US who believe that one strong man should rule. For example, the economy was bad under Trump, but has improved under Biden. However, these people don’t see that, she says.
– Why do you think it is correct to say that Trump wants to become a dictator?
– It is nothing new. Many reporters have said this before. As the Black Lives Matter protests after the killing of George Floyd spread, Trump would send the National Guard and the army into several states and major cities to quell what he called riots. He did not have that power, except in a national crisis.
– He also thought he had the power to cancel the presidential election in 2020. This is how a dictator acts, says Kitchen-Døderlein.
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Divided population in the United States
Kitchen-Døderlein says that many young Americans are now preparing for the fact that their standard of living is going to be worse than that of their parents’ generation.
This vision of the future creates both frustration and despair among young voters, who now wonder what their future will be like. That is why they would rather not have the US get involved outside the country’s borders, says the associate professor.
– This group is unsure of what will happen to them. Then you have people like Trump, who say that immigrants and foreigners are taking their jobs through migration and outsourcing. They do not understand how the war in Ukraine affects the United States, and think that it is only a war for honor, as the veterans fight for in Vietnam, she says.
Kitchen-Døderlein says that there is now a discussion going on in the US about whether to concentrate more on domestic or foreign policy issues. This is a long tradition in the USA, going all the way back to the end of the 18th century, when the country was new.
Then the country’s first president, George Washington, warned against the United States becoming involved in European conflicts.
– Now people are trying to say that the world wars are proof that Washington was right, that the European allies only engaged in pointless wars and that the US should stay away from the conflicts. Other Americans want the United States to be a superpower, and believe that Europeans are still grateful for what the United States did for them during World War II.
– Others are afraid of all international agreements and organisations, such as NATO and the UN, says the associate professor at the end.
2024-02-25 18:29:16
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