/ world today news/ For the first time, a criminal case was opened against a former US president. Donald Trump has been indicted by a Manhattan grand jury for paying porn star Stormy Daniels $130,000 to keep quiet about an affair. How will this end?
Dirty laundry
Rumors about Trump’s relationship with the actress started ten years ago, and there was nothing illegal about it. However, the money for Daniels was taken from the campaign fund and issued as legal fees to attorney Michael Cohen. In New York State, this is considered fraudulent reporting, a felony. In 2018, the lawyer pleaded guilty and received three years in prison, but then Trump was president and escaped responsibility.
Now the former head of state, who moved to Florida, is required to appear in New York, where he will be officially arrested, fingerprinted, photographed in profile and full-face. According to CBS, this could happen on April 4th. Then the first court hearing will be held. However, the American media believe that Trump is unlikely to be sent to prison. He will most likely be released on bail. Or even conditionally – if he promises not to hide and not interfere with the investigation.
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, a four-term Democratic nominee, will be the prosecutor. Trump has already said the prosecutor is “doing the dirty work for Joe Biden.” According to the former president, the Democrats are obsessed with the idea of ”catching” him, so they decided to accuse an innocent person in order to interfere in the election campaign. At the same time, Trump called Bragg a protégé of George Soros.
Even in the Democratic Party, many believe that for Bragg, the fight against Trump is a fixed idea. Another candidate, Democrat Tali Farhadian Weinstein, noted that Bragg mentions the former president at every opportunity to gain “political advantage.”
According to the New York Post, immediately after the election, Bragg set about reopening the investigation against Trump, but his subordinates began to walk out en masse in protest. Many doubt the prosecutor’s ability to send the powerful Republican to prison. Under the charges, the former president could avoid prison even if convicted. There will be an exception only if it is proven that he wanted to abscond or commit another crime. Then the politician is threatened with up to four years in prison.
Chasing two rabbits
Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has vowed to launch a parliamentary inquiry into the prosecutor. He is convinced that Trump’s prosecution is an outrageous abuse of power by a man who frees dangerous criminals but takes revenge on a political opponent.
In theory, the case of having sex with a porn star could really hurt the former president’s plans to return to the White House. Even among members of the Republican Party, about 44 percent think Trump should step down if he is formally indicted, according to a Reuters poll commissioned a week before the jury’s decision.
On the other hand, according to a Fox News survey, the controversy surrounding the trial has made Trump more popular within the party. In February, he was supported by 43% of party members, at the end of March – 54. At the same time, the popularity of his main competitor, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, fell from 28 to 24%. Republican pollster Darren Shaw believes that the accusations have helped the former president solidify the image of a fighter against injustice.
Meanwhile, Trump is already in Florida, so according to the New York Times and the BBC, his arrest could damage DeSantis’ reputation. Republican voters may blame the governor for failing to shield the former president from a Democratic crackdown. Therefore, DeSantis condemned the prosecution of his colleague and promised not to cooperate in his extradition.
Lawyers warn that the governor’s position could lead to a dangerous situation. To deliver Trump to New York, the police must obtain the appropriate authorization from Florida. If there, and then in other Republican states, they refuse to extradite their leader, it could split the US. In addition, Trump’s lawyers will surely try to delay the case until after the presidential election. If their client becomes head of state again, he will receive immunity.
First in history
Viktoria Zhuravlyova, the head of the sector for US foreign and domestic policy at IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the court will show leniency to Trump as a person who has never done such a thing before. In addition, it is extremely difficult to prove that he is the main actor in the crime. Since they are only now trying to bring the former president to criminal responsibility, apparently the prosecutor’s office is also doubting its own capabilities.
“He’s determined to cooperate with the court, which means he’s willing to play this game. Why didn’t they try to shut him down! Both for alleged conspiracy with Moscow, and calls to storm the Capitol, and tax evasion , and now they have caught on to such stupidity! Spending money from the campaign for such purposes is careless and careless”, the expert believes.
However, according to Zhuravlyova, the new process will not prevent Trump from participating in the presidential elections. In addition, a scandalous story will only add points to it. “While the trial is going on, he can campaign. If he is found guilty but not sent to prison, he still has the right to run. There are no restrictions in the constitution. Also, it is not yet clear who is winning from this whole story “Trump or the Democrats. His rating is growing, and the electoral base around him will unite even more,” the political scientist believes.
The dubious accusations of electoral fraud were enough for the supporters of the former head of state to try to carry out something similar to a coup d’état, adds Zhuravlyova. Now a real hunt for the leader is unfolding and their determination is only likely to increase. Even if Trump had no presidential ambitions, they would surely emerge now.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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