Per Olav Ødegård
Commentator in VG. Former foreign journalist and correspondent for VG in the USA. Writes mostly about international affairs.
Drawing: Morten Mørland
Season two of “Trump in the White House” will be completely different from the first. For Europe, the consequences will be far greater and worse.
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Trump’s second term will be less chaotic than the first. More targeted. And far more terrifying.
First and foremost for the Americans, but secondly for the USA’s many allies.
The first thing that could happen is that Trump abruptly cuts aid to Ukraine.
He has said he wants to stop “the endless flow of American tax dollars” to Ukraine.
Trump says in the election campaign that the war will be over within a day when he becomes president. He has not said how it will be done.
But the prospect of a radical overhaul of US Ukraine policy is undoubtedly being greeted with high expectations in the Kremlin.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has long since become a war of endurance. Bloody battles are taking place, but without major movements along the long front line. Trump’s promises give Putin a strong motivation to persevere.
For the Kremlin, it is important to retain control over occupied Ukrainian land until the US presidential election.
CAN WIN: Donald Trump is the favorite to become the Republican presidential candidate. Here at an election rally in New Hampshire on November 11. Photo: JOSEPH PREZIOSO / AFP / NTB
The United States has so far been by far the most important military and financial contributor to Ukraine’s defense struggle. Joe Biden has led the Western alliance that has stood up to Russian aggression and shown solidarity with Ukraine. The NATO countries have promised that they will help Ukraine, as long as it is necessary.
But a growing number of Republican voters and representatives will no longer pay for the defense of Ukraine. In Congress, they are trying to block new support packages for Kyiv.
If Ukraine is to be able to resist Russian aggression, it may soon be up to European countries to take the entire financial burden. The European NATO countries have increased their defense budgets and many are investing more in arms production. But without the United States, it is not enough.
In Russia, Putin has created a war economy. If Ukraine is to win, they will need Western arms and other support for a long time. But time is in Putin’s favor.
ON TALK: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in conversation at the APEC summit in Vietnam in 2017. Photo: STR / AFP / NTB
If Trump is elected, it is not only a joke for support for Ukraine, but perhaps also for the Western defense alliance.
In his first term, Trump called NATO outdated. He toyed with the idea of taking the US out of NATO.
Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton, says that Trump will “almost certainly” withdraw the US from NATO in a new presidential term.
Bolton has become a sharp critic of his former boss, like several of those who then worked in the White House.
Trump will undoubtedly intensify the demands on allies. He will again threaten to leave NATO if the allies do not spend much more on defence.
More problematic is that Trump is allegedly open to reconsidering NATO’s purpose and mission.
A member of the former Trump administration tells Rolling Stone magazine that Trump repeatedly said he would not start World War III by defending countries he considered insignificant. He is said to have listed several NATO member countries that he thought most Americans had not heard of.
The bedrock of NATO is Article Five, which states that an attack against one member state is to be considered an attack against all. This of course applies to all members, including countries that Trump considers insignificant.
NATO will not exist without the United States and Article Five of the Atlantic Treaty.
US AID: US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj in Kyiv on 20 November. Photo: – / AFP / NTB
Europe must take greater security policy responsibility, regardless of who the Americans elect as president.
After Russia’s annexation of Crimea and military intervention in eastern Ukraine in 2014, the NATO countries agreed that they should spend at least two percent of their GDP on defence. It happened two years before Trump was elected.
Only one in three member states will reach the target this year. Norway is far behind with 1.6 per cent, although the government has a long-term plan to reach two per cent.
The problem is that even two percent will not be sufficient to strengthen our own and the alliance’s defence, combined with assistance to Ukraine. And at least not without the United States.
Several countries must do the same, such as Poland, Finland and the Baltic states, which spend well over two percent on defence.
Poland is the best in the NATO class with four percent of GDP, which is well above the United States. These countries have historical experience which means that they understand better than others the threat posed by an authoritarian and aggressive Russia.
AT THE FRONT: Ukrainian soldiers take a break near the front line at Bakhmut in Donetsk November 18. Photo: ANATOLII STEPANOV / AFP / NTB
The election campaign is only about him, with endless complaints about a lost election and that he will be the victim of the age-old witch hunt.
Both Republican and Democratic presidents have understood for 75 years how important transatlantic security is, both for Europe and North America.
But Trump does not understand the value of the world order that the United States led in building in the first post-war years.
In his first term, Trump constantly questioned why the US didn’t just pull out of NATO. At that time there were adults in the room who spoke against him.
If Trump gets another term, the positions will be filled by people whose main qualification is that they support him in everything. The absence of critical voices is the most frightening.
OUT OF THE WAY: Donald Trump makes his way to take a seat at the table during the 2018 NATO summit. Photo: PABLO MARTINEZ MONSIVAIS / AFP / NTB
Trump is far more concerned with internal than external enemies.
– The threat from external forces is far less vicious, dangerous and serious than the threat from within, Trump said in a speech on Veterans Day.
He referred to political opponents in the US as “pests”. Everyone knows what to do with pests. Trump wants to become president to get revenge on those who have stood against him. He does not recognize election results that go against him and has systematically undermined trust in democratic institutions.
– America is back, said Joe Biden when he came to Europe in the summer of 2021. If Trump returns, the world’s liberal democracies will be without a unifying leader. Protectionism, isolationism and hunting political vermin do not qualify to lead the free world.
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Published: 26.11.23 at 22:19
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2023-11-26 21:19:10
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