Trump’s return… “America, we will fix everything” [2024 미국의 선택]

Winner confirmed, congratulatory message delivered… Andy Kim becomes the first Korean-American to enter the U.S. Senate

Former US President Donald Trump. AFP = Yonhap News

Former US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump declared victory in the November 5 US presidential election. This was based on the judgment that he had virtually secured victory by beating Pennsylvania, which was the biggest battleground, in addition to Georgia and North Carolina among the competing states.

At 2:30 a.m. on the 6th, the day after the presidential election, Eastern time, Trump gave a speech in front of supporters gathered at the Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida where his home is located, saying, “I have the honor of being elected as your 45th and 47th president. “I want to thank the American people for allowing me to enjoy it,” he said.

“We will help our country heal,” he said. “We will fix our borders. We will fix everything about our country.”

According to the Associated Press, as of 2:40 a.m. (local time) on this day, former President Trump had secured 267 electoral votes out of 270, which is a majority of the 538 electoral votes required for victory. Since he only needs to secure three more electoral votes, his return to power is virtually confirmed.

Meanwhile, the President’s Office said on this day, “Once the results of the U.S. presidential election are announced, we expect that an opportunity for communication between President Yoon Seok-yeol and the U.S. president-elect will be provided as soon as possible depending on the results.”

Meanwhile, Rep. Andy Kim (42, Democratic Party, New Jersey) was elected to the U.S. Senate for the first time as a Korean-American in the 120 years of Korean-American history.

Impact of Trump’s election on Korea

As a result of the vote count in the 47th U.S. presidential election, Republican candidate former President Donald Trump won on the 6th. With candidate Trump being elected, it is expected that the ‘America First’ stance will be strengthened again. This could be a burden on allies, including Korea, and challenges are observed in several aspects. Accordingly, we look in detail at the possible impact on Korea in various fields, including Korean diplomacy, economy, and security.

■ Pressure to increase defense cost sharing

Trump demanded an increase in defense cost sharing from allies, including South Korea, during his last term, and these demands are likely to become stronger if he is re-elected. South Korea may face a significant burden in defense spending negotiations with the United States, and there is a possibility that the ROK-U.S. alliance may experience economic conflict. This is because it could become a cause of conflict in diplomatic relations and increase the burden on the Korean government.

■ Uncertainty in resolving North Korea issues

Trump received a lot of attention in relations with North Korea through his summit with Chairman Kim Jong-un, but he was unable to actually achieve meaningful progress in denuclearization. As Trump succeeds in re-election, there is a possibility that North Korea policy will again take an unconventional approach, which could create a situation that is difficult to predict from South Korea’s perspective. There is a risk that South Korea’s position will be excluded as there is a possibility that the North Korea issue will be approached in a unilateral manner rather than through cooperation between South Korea and the United States.

■ Intensifying conflict between the US and China

With Trump re-elected, it is highly likely that hardline policies against China will be strengthened. Korea may experience economic and diplomatic conflict between the United States and China, and if the conflict between the United States and China intensifies, Korea’s position may be further narrowed. Korea may be in a situation where it has to cooperate with the United States in keeping China in check, but at the same time it may be in a difficult situation where it has to maintain economic relations with China.

■ Strengthened tariffs, weakening won, increasing burden on stock market

Above all, it is expected that there will be many unfavorable factors in the domestic stock market. Trump is making policies that can increase prices in the United States, such as imposing universal tariffs, as his representative pledge. Accordingly, there is a possibility that the dollar will continue to strengthen as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) slows down its rate cuts. In fact, when Trump was elected president in 2016, the value of the dollar rose by more than 6% in about two months. The market is already reflecting the ‘Trump trade’ (investment betting on Trump’s election), with the 10-year US Treasury bond interest rate exceeding 4% in just one month. On this day, the 10-year bond soared to 4.479% at one point. The rise in government bond interest rates, along with the weakening won, acts as a burden on the stock market. However, as the domestic stock market, which has recently continued to slump, has already reflected some of Trump’s negative news, further decline in the stock market is expected to be limited.

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