Steve Witkoff, the White House’s special envoy for the Middle east, is scheduled to visit the region next week. His primary objective is to negotiate an “extension” to the first phase of the existing ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. This diplomatic push comes as both parties continue to navigate the complexities of reaching a consensus on the second stage of the agreement, a phase fraught with significant disagreements.

The initial phase of the agreement centers primarily on the exchange of Israeli hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners detained by Israel. Witkoff’s upcoming trip underscores the ongoing commitment to maintaining this exchange, a critical component of the current truce. However, the path forward remains uncertain as negotiators grapple with the more contentious issues that define the subsequent phase.

The second phase of the agreement presents significant hurdles. It envisions the release of all remaining male hostages held by Hamas and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. However, according to reports from Israeli television channel 12, Israeli prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intends to leverage these discussions to address the long-term political future of Gaza. Netanyahu seeks guarantees that Hamas will not maintain any political or military presence in the region, a condition initially reserved for a potential third stage of negotiations. This demand adds a layer of complexity to an already delicate situation.

These complex demands set the stage for challenging negotiations, as highlighted by Witkoff himself. Speaking on CNN this Sunday, Witkoff stated his intention to arrive in the region next Wednesday to focus on “an extension of phase one,” prioritizing the continuation of hostage and prisoner exchanges before tackling broader, more divisive issues. This strategic approach aims to build confidence and momentum before addressing the more intractable aspects of the conflict.

Last Thursday, Witkoff acknowledged the increased difficulty of the second phase, notably due to Israel’s demand for Hamas’s removal from Gaza. He elaborated on the core challenges during an intervention at a Fii Institute forum in Miami:

“We must bear in mind that there is an end to war as part of the second phase. I think the Israelis have a ‘red line’,which is not to have Hamas in the government. So it is indeed challenging to square that circle, but we are making manny progress in the conversations.”

The complexities are further compounded by the deep-seated mistrust and lack of direct engagement between the involved parties. Witkoff noted the challenges arising from the fact that “Hamas does not want to be on the table with the Israelis and the Israelis do not want to sit at the table with them.” He also acknowledged the efforts of Brett McGurk, the American representative for the Middle East under the Joe Biden governance, in navigating these intricate dynamics. McGurk’s role is seen as crucial in facilitating interaction and bridging the gaps between the conflicting parties.

Despite these challenges, Witkoff expressed optimism about the potential for progress, emphasizing the shared commitment to securing the release of hostages. “Hopefully the goodwill of the first phase be transposed to the second because there are many families (Israelis) that have children there, which are hostages (…) I think the second phase is more difficult, but I think that if we work hard, there is a great possibility of success. Everyone is committed to this notion that freeing hostages is good,” he stated. This sentiment underscores the humanitarian imperative driving the negotiations.

moreover, Witkoff addressed previous interpretations of a Gaza plan proposed by Donald Trump, clarifying that the primary objective was to “change everyone’s way of thinking” and to encourage reflection on “what is the best solution for the Palestinian people.” This clarification aims to provide context and viewpoint on past efforts to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Witkoff’s role is considered pivotal in these discussions, given his position as a representative of the United States, a key ally of Israel, and his established relationship with Prime Minister Netanyahu. His diplomatic efforts are seen as crucial in navigating the complex political landscape and fostering progress towards a lasting resolution.

While acknowledging the hurdles, Witkoff remains confident that “there will be a second phase,” reiterating Netanyahu’s stance that “hamas will not be part of any future government.” this unwavering position highlights the core disagreements that continue to impede progress.

The ongoing conflict stems from an attack launched by Hamas on Israeli territory on october 7,2023,resulting in approximately 1,200 deaths and the capture of 240 hostages. israel responded with a military offensive in the Gaza Strip, with the stated aim of dismantling Hamas. This past context underscores the deep-seated animosity and the challenges of achieving a lasting peace.

The initial ceasefire agreement, reached in mid-January, facilitated a temporary cessation of hostilities in Gaza and the exchange of 33 Israeli hostages for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, marking the commencement of the first phase. This initial success provides a foundation for future negotiations, but significant obstacles remain.