Donald Trump has a serious problem marketing. Despite his self-proclaimed salesmanship and deal-making skills, his branding and marketing are the main obstacles to his re-election in 2024. Biden’s historically low approval rating and political overreach have alienated moderate Democrats and independent voters. This is why Trump is ahead of Biden in most national and swing state poll samples.
Trump has a real chance of returning to the White House in 2025, but is vulnerable to attacks from Democrats that will likely resonate with moderate suburban voters. Trump can solve this problem, but above all he cannot ignore it. Feijóo dismissed Sánchez’s devastating attacks last year and painfully learned a basic lesson in electoral management. Negative attacks cannot be ignored.
Historic performance and opportunity
By the time you read this article, It is very likely that Trump has already mathematically secured the Republican nomination. He turned in nothing short of a historic performance in the March 5 Super Tuesday primary. Trump’s vote share this year surpasses Ronald Reagan’s in 1980 and is comparable to George W. Bush’s in 2000. Only George HW Bush and Al Gore fared better as sitting vice presidents. Governor Haley’s exit from the race allows the Trump campaign to focus on the national election.
Voters want change, moderation and results. Inflation, immigration and crime are voters’ main concerns in 2024. And on those priority issues, they prefer Trump’s proposals to Biden’s.
The former president must rejuvenate his damaged political brand to make this opportunity a reality. He can do this by returning to his 2016 campaign-ending message of moderation and unity against the partisanship and division of the Obama years. This time it should be easier. A growing majority of voters see Biden as a divisive partisan who has rejected his 2020 electoral mandate to unite the country. The recent State of the Union address showed voters the type of campaign Biden plans to run: a relentless disqualifying attack on Trump and Trump voters as insurrectionists threatening American democracy. Trump cannot afford to ignore this.
As President Biden made clear during his recent speech, The national election campaign has already begun. Under the pretext of being fair, Biden reaffirmed his traditional adherence to Obama’s transformation agenda and economic populism. Biden’s campaign strategy is to build a populist anti-Trump coalition.
Trump leads in swing states
As the national campaign gets underway, President Trump has an advantage in the issues, voting intention, national samples, and most swing state samples. A campaign pollster study of all-source polls reveals that this cycle, there are only six truly swing states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. To win in November, Trump must win at least four of them. Trump now has the lead in all of them except Pennsylvania. It is too early for national or state surveys to have predictive value. Biden has operational advantages in most of those states: money, legacy early voting operations and state party influence. Trump has a messaging advantage in all of those states and nationally. Without organization and without participation initiatives, the advantage of the message is neutralized.
Trump’s Mar-a-Lago-based campaign brass, run by established Republican strategists, consultants and pollsters, unlike in 2016 and 2020, knows he needs to restore a broad coalition of Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats to maintain his advantage and win. Today Trump leads in five undecided states by comfortable margins, enough to win the necessary 270 votes in the Electoral College. Democrats won’t let Trump or his campaign do this easily. They will remind voters that, in their view, Trump represents a threat to American democracy, American global leadership, and American standards of living.
“Give it hard, Joe.”
President Biden recently spoke one of the most partisan and contentious State of the Union addresses of modern times. The White House opted for a “hit ’em hard, Joe” strategy [give them hell, Joe]» to reassure the establishment and liberal Democrats concerned about the president’s age and his ability to defeat former President Trump. It worked. Prominent Democrats and party leaders were reassured by what they perceived as a good speech. Special Counsel Hur will testify before Congress this week. Republicans have requested all documents associated with the investigation. Hur will be under partisan pressure to walk back or reinforce his damaging assessment of the president’s mental capacity.
Biden’s tone and message have resolved an ongoing debate among Biden’s top campaign, family and business advisers. The question is whether to run for re-election as a traditional economic populist or as a centrist moderate. The strategy is to run a populist “grassroots election” and appeal to independents, moderate Democrats, and Republicans who will never go back to Trump.
US President Joe Biden during the speech on the State of the Union. | Europa Press
These attacks won’t play with most voters, but they have the potential to resonate with suburban voters who, while they prefer Trump on issues and policies, They despise him personally and fear his direct and confrontational style.
To win in 2024, Trump needs to soften his style to broaden his reach. His proposals already attract moderates. Biden and most Democrats have consistently demonized Trump and, more dangerously, his voters. A subtle change of style will make Trump’s lead difficult to overcome. Through modern polling techniques it is possible to identify exactly what type of voter is dissatisfied with Biden and is concerned about the direction of the country, but, at the same time, likes Trump’s proposals while having reservations about his style. These are the persuasive suburban moderates who will decide November’s winner.
Relaunch of the Trump brand
Senator Britt gave the response speech on behalf of Republicans to Biden last week. The national media has widely rejected her actions. The Trump campaign has welcomed it and sees a strategic fit in his message. Britt, Scott, Vance and Carson continue to top Trump’s list of vice presidential candidates. The Trump campaign understands that the brand has been severely damaged and needs to be rejuvenated. The vice presidential election is an ideal way to relaunch the Trump brand. The campaign believes the election will be won on inflation, immigration, crime and abortion in swing-state suburbs, where moderate voters on both sides prefer Trump on those issues. but they have serious reservations about Trump’s style and personality.
The Trump paradox is that in 2016 Trump was not a viable political brand. However, his products and proposals on the issues of the moment and criticism of Obama’s overreach made him a formidable political brand.
Eight years later, Biden’s poor performance on these issues gives Trump a chance to earn a return to the White House. Trump’s political brand is now damaged. There is considerable demand in the political market for Trump products in 2024. These products will not sell as well as they did in 2016 if the Trump brand is not rejuvenated and relaunched.
As in business marketing, Effective innovation and good products are the best ways to rejuvenate old and worn brands. After Biden’s overreach and his management failures, Trump’s products are once again attracting the majority of the electorate. A change of style is essential to give confidence to moderate suburban voters who have doubts. Strategically Biden cannot win in 2024, but Trump can lose.
2024-03-12 03:53:06
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