Trump’s landslide victory in battleground states signals a reorganization of the U.S. electorate[오늘과 내일/이종곤]｜Dong-A Ilbo

Lee Jong-gon, Professor of Political Science and Diplomacy at Ewha Womans University. Contrary to media expectations, the 47th U.S. presidential election ended in a landslide victory for former President Donald Trump. President-elect Trump swept all Rust Belt battleground states from Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, securing a majority of the electoral college, and unlike the results of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, he also won the overall voter vote. This is the first time since George W. Bush was re-elected president in 2004 that a Republican presidential candidate received a higher vote rate than a Democratic candidate. In the 2000 and 2016 presidential elections, Republican presidential candidates were elected, but did not achieve a majority of the total voter vote. For this reason, there is analysis that the 2024 election suggests a realignment of the American electorate.

Union-Hispanics increasingly withdraw support from Democratic Party

The Democratic Party’s main supporters are workers and racial minorities. According to CNN’s exit poll from this presidential election, candidate Kamala Harris received more than 50% of the votes from black, Hispanic, Asian voters, and members of unionized households. However, the percentage of people who voted for candidate Harris decreased compared to candidate Joe Biden in 2020. In particular, the departure of unionized household members and Hispanic voters is noticeable. In the presidential election four years ago, candidate Biden received 16 percentage points and 33 percentage points more votes from those voters than candidate Trump, respectively. On the other hand, candidate Harris this year only gained 8 percentage points and 6 percentage points more.

The reason why major supporters of the Democratic Party left is basically economic issues. Since the Biden administration took office, the number of undocumented immigrants has increased rapidly. Due to the increase in undocumented immigrants, labor supply has expanded and wages for low-wage workers have fallen. As a result, Hispanic voters competing for the same jobs were driven into unemployment. In addition, the easing monetary and fiscal policies implemented to overcome COVID-19 resulted in inflation with a consumer price index (CPI) increase rate of over 9%. Some of the Democratic Party’s core supporters, who experienced lower real wages under the Biden administration, began to withdraw their support for the Democratic Party.

Amid the exodus of Hispanics and the working class, candidate Harris focused on gathering black and female votes based on her personal characteristics as a black woman. This is because even if they lose sunbelt battleground states such as Arizona and Nevada, where many Hispanics reside, they can secure a majority of electoral votes if they win all of the rustbelt battleground states. A reasonable choice was made, but in this process, the departure of not only Hispanics but also Rust Belt workers became serious. As workers turned their backs, candidate Harris was defeated, unable to win even one of the contested states.

For example, candidate Harris did not receive support from major unions in the Rust Belt region, such as the International Brotherhood of Teamsters. The union expressed support for candidate Biden in 2020, but announced that it would not support any candidate in the 2024 presidential election. Senator Bernie Sanders said of this presidential election, “The Democratic Party has abandoned the working class. (As a result) the working class also abandoned the Democratic Party.”

Impact of lower real wages due to rapid increase in immigration

The results of the 2024 presidential election could signal a reorganization of the American voter base. According to the CNN exit poll mentioned earlier, the proportion of traditional voters voting for Democratic and Republican candidates in 2024 was not much different from before. However, the voting behavior of first-time voters has changed significantly. Voters who voted for the first time in their lives during the 2020 presidential election supported the Democratic candidate by 32 percentage points, but first-time voters in the 2024 presidential election supported the Republican candidate by 13 percentage points. And at the center of this change are young Hispanics and workers. This suggests that changes in voting behavior seen in the 2024 election may stick to American politics for the long term.

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Jong-gon Lee, Professor, Department of Political Science and Diplomacy, Ewha Womans University

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