Trump’s Indictment and the 2024 Election: Will it Affect His Presidency?

Targeted by 37 counts for his alleged role in the retention of secret documents, Donald Trump plunged the United States into unknown waters: to see a candidate run for the White House after indictment, even conviction. In his campaign to win back the presidency, the Republican billionaire immediately dismissed the idea that he could throw in the towel in the face of the charges against him – preferring instead to blame it on “corrupt” political adversaries. “, eager to distort the elections.

Such a tactic “is unlikely to tip the scales for undecided voters, but will galvanize Trump supporters who might waver or think about backing a candidate with fewer pans,” said Matt Shoemaker, a national security expert and former operative. intelligence.

Both in the case of the White House archives and that, in New York, of the purchase of the silence of an actress of porn movies, the prosecutors hope that Donald Trump will be judged before the American voters go to the ballot boxes, in November 2024. Nothing is less certain, however.

Donald Trump’s direct competitors in the race for the Republican Party nomination – his former Vice President Mike Pence and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, among others – could have taken advantage of his indictment, announced Thursday, to portray him as unfit. as Commander-in-Chief. But they would have risked alienating the fervent supporters of the ex-president, who reject the accusations against him, and therefore contented themselves with crying foul alongside him.

Consequently, the billionaire’s rivals “hope that Trump will be eliminated from the race for the nomination by a series of indictments”, explains political scientist Larry Sabato, of the University of Virginia. Because he is also the subject of a federal investigation for his role in the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021. And some media are suggesting that the ex-president could be charged, in particular with extortion, in Georgia, for his alleged attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in that state. “That’s all. It’s their strategy… They’re not going to do anything,” continues Larry Sabato.

In the case of Donald Trump’s management of the White House archives, the indictment against him – made public on Friday – includes 37 counts, including those of “illegal retention of information relating to national security”, “obstructing justice” and “false testimony”. In New York, he had been charged in particular with accounting fraud.

Only half of respondents in a recent poll believed that falsifying accounting records to buy a pornographic actress to remain silent about an alleged affair was a serious offence. But two-thirds of those polled considered, on the other hand, that having carried away documents marked secret defense of the White House and hindering the attempts of the authorities to recover them represented indeed such a serious offense.

Among Republicans, they were respectively 28% and 42% to think the same. Significant figures, which suggest that Donald Trump’s campaign for the primary could be at an inflection point.

(AFP)Show comments