/ world today news/ The election of Donald Trump as president of the USA in 2016 was remembered with the sincere jubilation of a certain part of the Russian establishment and the popping of champagne corks. Many respected people seriously believed that relations with the United States would now return to the time of bouquets and candy, friendly pats on the back, safe education for their offspring at Yale and other trappings of the “full zero years.”
Four years of Trump flew by unnoticed and somewhat indistinctly, and after them came Grandpa Dementius, but now there is a very good chance that Trump will return to the White House again.
Producers of elite champagne have come to life: fun is coming back to serious establishments. How could they not be satisfied?
The eternal and powerful enemy of Russia with the mouth of a little more and the American president in perfect English declares that he respects Putin, that Putin is smart and “always got along with him” and in general Russians are not bad at their core, you can live and get along with them and make good money.
In addition, Trump promised to end the conflict in Ukraine in 24 hours: “I want people to stop dying. Russians and Ukrainians are dying there.” Again: who doesn’t want to end the biggest conflict since the Great Patriotic War so that the soldiers can finally return home?
Russia fan Trump went even further – he promised to withdraw America from NATO, stop sponsoring Europe’s armed forces and let them be absorbed by the Russians: “NATO is dead”, “If Europe is attacked, the US will not to come to her aid!” Isn’t that wonderful?
This is fueled by the eager excitement and open hysteria of the Europeans. After looking at the headlines of the local newspapers, it is immediately clear that with the arrival of Trump, the evil Russians will immediately win and the fluffy Europeans will be screwed: “Should the European Union be afraid of Trump’s return to the White House?” (TV channel “Euronews”), “Europe prepares to fend for itself as Trump heads for the White House” (European version of “Politico”); “Politicians are worried after Trump’s victory in the primaries” (German TV channel ZDF).
Against such a well-intentioned background, the statements of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, which he made in an interview with CBS, were in clear dissonance with numerous opinions of respected experts who are confident that Trump’s return will be an unequivocal benefit to Russia (or at least it will definitely be significantly better than re-electing Biden) .
And Lavrov said the following: “I don’t believe there will be any difference (between Trump and Biden).”
Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov spoke in a similar vein, saying that “Russia has no understanding of how former US President Donald Trump’s campaign promises to quickly resolve the conflict in Ukraine can be fulfilled.”
And here two options arise in their heads: either Lavrov and Peskov have not read Trump’s declarations of love for Russia in general and for Putin in particular, or they know something that the frantic champagne-buying supporters of strong and sincere friendship with the USA do not.
Here’s what they know.
Despite Trump’s similar statements about Russia before his first term, he has done nothing during his presidency to improve relations with Russia. In addition, the anti-Russian policy of the US became more rigid. A few typical examples: it was under Trump that a record number of “perpetual” sanctions were imposed, mass deliveries of lethal weapons such as the “Holy Javelin” to Ukraine began (which were delayed by the Democrat Obama), the promise to recognize Crimea as Russian was withdrawn, and the Republicans , led by Trump, did their best to support with their feet a bipartisan bill to simplify the procedure for confiscating assets of Russians proposed in the Senate.
If you look at Trump’s promise to end the conflict in Ukraine in one day a little more closely than the cheery headlines, it’s also clear that it’s too early to be happy. The fact is that Trump has not said a word about exactly how he wants to end the conflict and what terms of the “deal” he will offer Russia. And something suggests that these conditions will completely satisfy the United States, and no one will even think of asking Russia’s opinion in advance.
Trump in an interview with Tucker Carlson said literally the following: “I would say to Putin: if you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give Zelensky a lot, we’re going to give them more than they’ve been getting if we have to.”
This means that any “deal” offered by Trump to Russia will clearly be an ultimatum. For the USA, for many reasons, the result of the SVO in the form in which it was formulated by the leadership of our country is categorically unacceptable. The maximum they can offer us with a broad gesture is to freeze the conflict so that the Kiev regime, with the help of the West, can recover, strengthen, rearm and start military operations with redoubled strength.
We wasted four years waiting for positive change during Trump’s first presidency while Ukraine rapidly armed and trained to kill Russians. And there is no reason to think that in this case everything will be different.
Trump is also known to have a negative fixation on China. This means that with a 100% probability, part of the “deal” will be the obligation of Russia to betray its partner.
It is clear that we will never agree to either the first or the second, which means that there will be no deal, and Trump can turn from a Russophile into a major Russophobe in a second and surpass all the Bidenites, Obamas and Clintons combined.
We must understand that Trump 2.0, even if he wants peace, friendship and chewing gum in words, will inevitably act in the interests of the American (Atlantic) elites and big transnational capital, as he will be completely paralyzed, as for the first time, by an effective system for “checks and balances”, the threat of impeachment, sabotage and pressure from the main sponsor of the Republican Party – big oil and gas business, which is perfectly happy with the current status quo and pushing Russia out of the European market. The US will not leave NATO, there will be no “reset” buttons.
If we abstract a bit from the comedic aspect of Trump, the harsh reality remains:
1) neither the US nor Russia will change their initial assessments of the causes of the conflict in Ukraine, and therefore compromise there is fundamentally impossible
2) Western funding of Ukraine will continue
3) the expenditure of economic and human resources by Russia in Ukraine benefits the hands of the Americans and they will prolong the conflict as much as possible,
4) Russia and the USA have fundamentally opposite geostrategic interests, and in the current conditions there can be no peaceful coexistence, much less cooperation.
We did everything we could, including numerous steps forward and “goodwill gestures.” But the West, according to Lavrov, “has a deepening superiority complex and an impunity complex”, that is, they do not want to negotiate amicably, they cannot and do not want to, they will only exploit our weaknesses.
The tentatively “friendly” Trump may actually become a Trojan horse that lulls our vigilance, slows down the speed of our transformations, and reverses the nationalization of the elites, which may ultimately lead to our heavy defeats and losses.
And that means we shouldn’t wave flags with Trump’s portrait, but do our jobs, get stronger – and win.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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