Former American President Donald Trump‘s chances of returning to the White House are increasing: for the first time since August this year, according to some calculation methodologies, his votes have become higher than those of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
According to forecasts by the British magazine The Economist, the probability that Trump will win the next presidential election is 54%, which is six percentage points more than the previous week. The publication’s analysts have tracked a steady decline in Harris’ lead in national polls over the past month.
At the same time, the initial increase in support for the vice president, when she managed to overtake Trump, is associated with her nomination, but there was no subsequent increase in her support. At the same time, Trump supporters experience party consolidation around the figure of the former president, who begins to be supported by previously undecided voters.
We are also witnessing a strengthening of Trump’s position not only in some states, but also in the country as a whole. Support for the Republican candidate is growing in both key and swing states. However, Harris’ support is still strong in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Trump leads the vice presidency in North Carolina and Arizona.
It is worth noting that due to the peculiarities of the American electoral system, in which the winner is not determined directly by counting the votes of citizens, but by the number of voters who supported a particular candidate, there is a high probability that Democrats use administrative procedures. resources and any type of falsification, even in the case of voting by post.
