/ world today news/ The temporary arrest of former US President Donald Trump did not lead to clashes between his supporters and opponents, which the US authorities were so afraid of. For America, however, the consequences of his trial could be colossal. The court will determine not only the guilt of Trump, but also the name of the future president of the United States. It is unlikely that this last name is Trump.
“Give me the man, and a member will be found” With these words, the former national security adviser of President Donald Trump, John Bolton, commented on the arrest of his former boss and the criminal charges against him.
At the same time, he stated that this phrase belonged to Lavrenty Beria. In fact, it is not known whether Beria actually said this – this phrase is only attributed to him. And we know for a fact that in the history of the United States, no criminal charges have ever been brought against presidents – neither former, nor current, nor potential (meaning, candidates from one of the leading parties).
Here we have to understand that Trump and Bolton literally hate each other. The appointment of Bolton to the White House administration was one of Trump’s major mistakes that cost him his re-election. He was not really reelected. We won’t argue that this is the reason, but no Democrat can stomp on Trump the way Bolton stomped on him in his book.
In fact, the former US national security adviser considers his former employer the main threat to US national security.
However, Bolton is now on Trump’s side and claims that the “threat to national security” has fallen victim to political repression. The same opinion is shared by Mike Pence (former vice president, who quarreled with Trump after the riots in the Capitol), Ron DeSantis (governor of Florida and the second most popular Republican in the country, who quarreled with Trump recently) and other enemies and opponents of the eccentric billionaire from among the party members.
In other words, the party is rallying around its “terrible child”, its rating is growing, donations for the election campaign are pouring in. And he himself, dying of modesty, called his arrest “the darkest day in the history of America.”
Seen by Russia, Trump is delusional. It is the most massive spectacle in American history and a good occasion for sarcasm. No more, no less.
They put you on trial. You’re officially under arrest for an hour without being handcuffed. They accuse you of improperly documenting bribery of a porn actress to keep quiet about having sex with you (by the way, she’s still keeping quiet, but the lawyer isn’t). And then they are released without any restrictions, except the obligation to appear in court again in eight months – in December. You fly to your mansion and resent the arbitrariness. End of first act.
Political repression doesn’t look like that. And with Beria, they don’t act like that. “I don’t believe it,” says Konstantin Stanislavski in such cases.
The Trump trial is, of course, purely political. In the sense that it pursues political goals and has a manageable nature. From the point of view of the US federal authorities.
According to the main Republican mouthpiece Fox News, Biden aides are delighted with the process. And not only because they hate Trump, but on the contrary – because this process accompanies his popularity. If Trump is nominated for the presidential election of the Republican Party, their boss will also run for another term.
“Biden’s entourage points to 2020 election. as the main reason for confidence in a potential rematch. They say they beat Trump once and will beat him again,” the TV channel’s material claims.
There is reason to believe that only with a rival Trump, Biden will be able to claim another four years in power. A younger and less scandalous Republican will not leave him a chance for re-election, which is well understood in the leadership of the Democratic Party. This guarantees Biden a hard time – he will be pressured by his people not to run. And if he does, the party has the resources to ensure he doesn’t make it to the finish line (especially since he’s literally walking with visible difficulty).
The controllability of the Trump trial depends on how scandalous it will be.
The trial is due to begin in January 2024. That is, at the same time that primary voting begins. You can win the primaries and even the presidential campaign from the bunker if you are Biden and the entire political machine of the party is working for you. If you are Trump, then you need rallies, stadiums with fans, all over the country, contact with the people – otherwise it will not happen. Instead, he faces a public spat over a porn star.
Bolton believes that the charge is minor, so Trump will most likely be acquitted. But this “insignificance” in this case does not matter – the process can be exhausting. The problem is not even that his accuser won the election for prosecutor (in the US the prosecutor is an elected position) precisely with the promise to put Trump behind bars. The problem is that the case is being tried by a jury and the court is sitting in New York.
It is a highly democratic area, a stronghold of the liberals, a homogeneous political space. Those who were taught to hate Trump will have to justify Trump.
Therefore, Trump’s lawyers are trying to move the trial to a more moderate area of New York, but there is little chance of this, since the office and residence of the accused, the famous “Trump Tower”, is located right in the center of Manhattan (another a small example of the harm of huge ambition).
Another thing is that Trump doesn’t really face anything serious in terms of criminal consequences. The phrase “34 charges with a total sentence of 136 years in prison” is now repeated by his enemies and supporters, but this is a mockingly formal approach. Each point is a separate tranche of the same bribe that was paid in installments. Four years is the maximum sentence for each tranche, that is, 36 x 4 = 136. Theoretically, 136 years in prison can be awarded, but in practice it works differently: even if found guilty, Trump will surely get away with “a slight scare .”
The main thing, we repeat, is how Trump’s election race will be limited in the face of opposition to him from a large part of Republicans who tolerate him only as long as he is strong. And here everything depends on which group of Democrats manages to influence the process to a greater extent : the one who wants a second term for Biden, or the one who wants the current president to withdraw from the race in the interest of the party and the country.
However, there is another version of the development of events. One where no one will betray Trump, as many of his appointees have betrayed him before, from Bolton to the lawyer who bribed a porn star. One in which he will once again shame the naysayers, win the election at age 78, and pardon himself of all crimes (American presidents have that option).
Trump himself believes this. He believes in many things, including making America great again. But for now, he’s only guaranteed a leading role in the most shameful trial of a US president imaginable.
At least Clinton didn’t end up in court, and what happened seemed to be out of love.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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