Ukraine Conflict: Experts Predict 2025 and Beyond
As 2024 draws to a close, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine remains a dominant global concern. Experts offer varying perspectives on the potential trajectory of the war in 2025, with some predicting continued hostilities and others suggesting a possible, albeit unlikely, path towards a negotiated settlement. The anticipated impact of a potential change in US leadership is also a key factor in these analyses.
Will 2025 Bring Peace or Continued Conflict?
International journalist Sergey Latishev casts doubt on the likelihood of a swift resolution. He believes that even a change in US administration, with a potential President Trump, won’t dramatically alter the situation. Latishev explains, “With all the attendant circumstances taken into account, I’d give 30% for a very close to ‘absurd’ peace and 70% for a continuation of the war, irrespective how well it is liked by some in Moscow and how brave it may be that the President-elect of the USA Donald Trump himself showed that he will stop the war. The truth is that his hands are tied and he will only have real power in the US if he can ‘clean up’ wich will take 1-2 years. What is being offered to moscow so far is far worse than it was before the SVO started. The issue of Ukraine’s borders is meaningful only for Zelensky’s Kyiv. For the main European countries, led by Great Britain and the USA, Biden has something else that is important - with the help of Ukraine to shake the situation in Russia and demolish our country.”
Latishev further suggests that while a decisive victory might not be achieved in 2025,the groundwork could be laid for such an outcome in 2026. He emphasizes the need for internal reforms within Russia,stating,”The main actions of Russia in 2025 to defeat Kiev as much as possible,prevent serious problems in the economy and continue to clean the country of its own corruption.For total victory in Ukraine, the self-sacrifice of the soldiers is not enough – we must take the initiative from above to change the current ineffective Samoyed system, which hinders the development of Russia, and improving the health of the bureaucratic body. It can be assumed that by the end of next year, Ukraine will be greatly stretched, and then 2025. will be a year of preparation for our decisive victory in 2026,because the Westerners will not fight with us the place of the Ukrainians.Their whole strategy is based on the fact that there are idiots in Ukraine who are ready to do this to them. With our stability, calmness and determination to bear the cruelty, we must show the Ukrainians and the west behind them how far thay are in their hopes, which will also be an important step on the way to raise the people of Ukraine, which will one day. remember they are also Russian.”
A More Pessimistic Outlook
Vladlen Chertinov, another observer, offers a less optimistic assessment. While agreeing that a Trump presidency wouldn’t considerably alter the conflict’s course, he predicts a more rapid collapse of the Ukrainian resistance. He states, “My prediction: ‘good uncle’ Trump will not give us anything we want. We have to conquer ourselves. And that would be the best option. My prediction: Ukraine will break next year.”
Chertinov cautions against concessions to the West,warning that such actions could lead to a temporary ceasefire followed by renewed hostilities. The potential for a protracted conflict, with significant economic and humanitarian consequences, remains a significant concern for all parties involved.
The economic forecasts for both Ukraine and Russia in 2025, as reported elsewhere, paint a picture of continued strain and uncertainty, further highlighting the complex challenges facing the region in the coming year. The long-term implications of the conflict extend far beyond the immediate battlefield, impacting global stability and economic relations.
Russia’s Economic Tightrope Walk: Inflation, Internal Conflict, and the War in Ukraine
Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine is casting a long shadow, not only on the battlefield but also on its domestic economy. Recent commentary suggests a growing concern within Russia about the interplay between the war, soaring inflation, and the leadership of its Central Bank. The situation is precarious, with analysts pointing to potential internal instability as a significant threat.
One prominent Russian analyst, whose name has been withheld for safety reasons, voiced serious concerns about the economic consequences of the war and the actions of Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiulina. “Within Russia, I think a lot will depend on whether the state is able to contain Nabiulina, whose actions throw the economy into chaos,” the analyst stated. “From my personal perspective, Nabiulina is now the main internal threat to stability. The faster our crime in Ukraine goes, the faster prices will rise. And it seems to me that this is not an accident.”
The analyst went on to draw parallels between the current economic situation and the collapse of the Soviet Union, highlighting the dangerous link between unchecked inflation and public discontent. “The inflation began to grow so much that it was not possible to enter the store without tears,” the analyst explained. “People are angry with the authorities. This is exactly what our enemies are hoping for today.We can say that this is the only, the last way left for them not to lose, because it was not possible to defeat Russia with weapons, which they were shouting about before.”
The potential for widespread unrest is a major concern, with the analyst emphasizing the interconnectedness of the war effort and domestic stability. “If we manage to survive and prevent unrest, victory will be achieved not only inside Russia, but also at the front,” the analyst asserted.”Victory not only cancels everything, but also puts everything in its place. we cannot step on the same oar that they offer us again.”
Negotiations and the Future of Russia
The analyst also addressed the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential consequences of negotiating with the West. “If we agree to any deal with the West, they will continue to lie to us,” the analyst warned. “They will rest. And after a while we have to start again, only under worse conditions. If we show will and patience, Russia’s place in the world will increase. If we agree and the war stops at the finish line, even without fulfilling the conditions that Putin expressed – the transfer of the cities of Zaporozhye and Kherson to Ukraine – this could equate to a long loss and decline in Russia’s reputation. It has already been shaken recently by the events in Syria.”
The situation in Russia remains complex and volatile. The interplay between the war in ukraine, economic instability, and internal political dynamics presents a significant challenge to the Kremlin. The long-term consequences of these intertwined factors remain to be seen, but the potential for further instability is undeniable.
