Trump Trade puts pressure on the baht to pass 35.00 |

Department of Foreign Trade The Bank of Bangkok reports that the Foreign Exchange Market Movement Conditions for 11-15 November 2024. The baht opened the market on Monday (11/11) at a rate of 34.23/24 baht/US dollar . A decrease from the market’s closing rate on Friday (8/11) at 34.00/01 baht/US dollar. after the strengthening of the US dollar However, on Monday (11/11), the baht weakened within a limited range.

Because the US currency market is closed on Veterans Day or American Veterans Day. Therefore, no important economic figures were released last Monday night (11/11) before the baht weakened significantly on Tuesday (12/11) after the US currency market returned to open and the price of gold decreased due to pressure of “Trump Trade”.

At the end of the week, the US Dollar Index strengthened to a record high of 107.06 (14/11), reaching its highest level since November 2023 on expectations that the policies of Mr. Donald Trump President of the United States This will result in higher inflation and the Federal Reserve (Fed) may delay reducing interest rates. Or it could end a cycle of interest rate cuts if inflation rises sharply. After the Republican Party under Mr. Trump Close to a majority in the House of Representatives As a result the party will gain complete control of Congress. and pave the way for Mr. Trump to carry out a number of economic policies more appropriately

The US Department of Labor revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October accelerated 2.6% year over year. According to analysts’ forecasts. After a 2.4% increase in September and the core CPI index rose 3.3% year on year. According to analysts’ forecasts. After rising 3.3% in September, on Thursday (14/11) the US Department of Labor revealed that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.4% year over year in October. Higher than expected at 2.3% after a 1.9% increase in September On a monthly basis, the general PPI index rose 0.2% in October, according to forecasts. After a 0.1% increase in September, the Core PPI index (Core PPI), which does not include food and energy, rose 3.1% in October year on year. Better than expected at 3.0% after a 2.9% rise in September And when compared monthly, the core PPI index rose 0.3% in October, in line with forecast numbers. After rising 0.2% in September, the number of first-time applicants for unemployment benefits fell by 4,000 to 217,000 last week.

This is the lowest level in 6 months and below the expected number of 225,000 cases On Friday (15/11), the Dollar Index rose to 106.9 after consumer inflation (CPI) and numbers consumer inflation (PPI) in October from September and a statement from Mr. Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), indicating that there was no rush in rates to cut flat. Because the US economy has continued to expand.

Although the labor market is strong Inflation is still above the Fed’s target of 2%, and the situation allows the Fed to make a prudent monetary policy.

It was also encouraged by the election victory of US President Donald Trump and the Republican Party’s control of Congress. This will push for various Trump policies very quickly.

Find the results of the latest vote count Republicans have 218 seats in the House of Representatives, enough for a majority. Although Democrats hold only 208 seats, Republicans still hold a majority in the Senate, with 52 seats, compared to 47 for Democrats, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. -invested 59.1% pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 4.25%-4.50% at its December meeting, from 82.5% previously.

for domestic factors The baht continued to depreciate through the beginning of the week. From concern about the news about Mr. Mr Kittirat Na Ranong has been the Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Thailand (BoT) since Monday (11/11), with analysts saying Mr Kittirat’s appointment this time was made to show the government’s intention to push for him BoT eases policy But overall, it is seen that the market still needs to be cautious as there is still a chance that the baht will strengthen again. At the end of the week, the baht continued to depreciate in line with the world market and gold prices.

The market is still worried about Mr. Trump’s trade protection policies On November 13, the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) released the results of a survey on the business confidence index in October 2024, it was at a level of 89.1, increasing. from 87.1 in September.

This is because the flood situation in many areas has started to decrease. This has a positive effect on the sales of consumer products. Home appliances agricultural equipment and chemical fertilizers On November 14, the Thai Economic and Business Forecast Center revealed that the October Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) improved in the past 8 months to a level of 56.0 from a level of 55.3 in September, as people relieved their worries from the situation of the floods. And the government is stimulating the economy through a program to distribute 10,000 baht to vulnerable and disabled groups. As a result, consumption becomes more flexible.

However, the index is below the 100 level, which is normal. This shows that consumers still see the general economic situation as still recovering slowly. Cost of living is still high And people are still cautious about spending. During the week, the baht moved within the range of 34.19-35.15 baht / US dollar. and closed the market on Friday (15/11) at a rate of 34.91/93 baht/US dollar.

for the movement of the euro The market opened on Monday (11/11) at a rate of 1.0727/29 USD/EUR. Weakening from the market closing level on Friday (08/11) at 1.0771/72 US dollar / euro, with the euro continuing to move weakly during the week. Under pressure from the US election results and market concerns about Mr. Donald Trump’s policies regarding tariff walls. In addition, Mr. Francois Villeroy de Gallo, President of the Bank of France and member of the European Central Bank (ECB), said:

Mr. Trump’s economic policy after investors continued to receive news about Mr. Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election. This is because European countries are the countries that have a trade surplus with the United States, second only to China In addition, the Chairman of the Bank of Finland expects the ECB to reduce interest rates in December 2024, but it is not clear. how long will this continue. This is because inflation in the Eurozone is on a positive trend. and the growth trend seems to be weakening. During the week, the euro moved within the range of 1.0524-10579 USD / Euro. and closed on Friday (15/11) at the rate of 1.0544/48 USD/EUR.

for the movement of the yen The market opened on Monday (11/11) at the level of 153.08/09 Yen/US Dollar. Decrease from the market closing level on Friday (08/11) at 152.22/23 yen / US dollar. On Monday morning (11/11), the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released a summary of its October policy meeting, where the BOJ committee had different views on the appropriate time to raise interest rates. Some leaders warn that raising interest rates too quickly could cause financial markets to return to volatility.

In addition, most of the committee members emphasized the need to keep a close eye on the market situation. Especially the movement of the yen. to assess whether the Japanese economy can cope with rising borrowing costs However, some committee members believed that the BOJ should clearly state its position If the economy and inflation are as expected, the BOJ is poised to raise interest rates further. for economic numbers Japan’s Ministry of Finance published that Japan had a current account surplus of 15.82 trillion yen ($103 billion) in April-September, the first half of the fiscal year 2024.

This was driven by an increase in foreign investment returns as the yen weakened. However, on November 13, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) released the Producer Price Index (CGPI), which is an index used to measure the prices of goods and services that companies sell to each other. A 3.4% increase in October compared to last year. Higher than the market expectations of 2.9% and higher than last month. A September increase of 3.1%, which will make the BOJ’s decision on the timing of a rate hike more difficult.

In addition, the Sankei newspaper (Sankei) reported that the Japanese government is preparing to prepare an additional budget to provide additional funds for economic stimulus measures to help low-income families and to impact reduce the rise of inflation. The additional funding is expected to be around 13.5 trillion yen (US$87 billion). Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.9% in 3Q2024 year on year. This is an extension for two consecutive quarters. And analysts in a Bloomberg News poll had expected a 0.7% expansion, driven by an increase in consumer spending.

In addition, the Governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) (Mr. Kazuo Ueda) is to deliver a speech and press conference in the Japanese city of Nagoya next Monday (18/11), during which the market is watching closely. Look for signs that the BOJ may raise interest rates in December or January next year after Japan’s 3rd quarter GDP data showed stronger than expected consumption. During the week, the value of the yen moved in the range between 152.62-156.74 Yen/US Dollar and closed the market on Friday (15/11) at the level of 156.43/54 Yen/US Dollar.

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