Unstoppable Bitcoin. With just over a week to go before the US presidential elections, investors are increasingly betting on a possible victory for Donald Trump. This translates into a strong rally in bitcoin, which reached above 71,000 dollars this morning, not far from the historical highs of March ($73,750). Meanwhile, in Italy the controversy over the increase in taxation of capital gains on cryptocurrencies continues and an amendment is looming in the parliamentary passage of the 2025 budget to bury or tone down this rule.
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Bitcoin at $71,000 one week before the US elections
The price of the largest digital asset marks a further +5% in the last 24 hours, bringing the balance since the beginning of the year to over +70%. Ethereum is also on the rise. Cryptocurrencies “price in” Donald Trump’s election victory. The so-called Trump Trade consists in the fact that the Republican presidential candidate openly supported bitcoin during the election campaign and promised to make the United States the cryptocurrency capital of the world, while his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris took a more measured approach and promised to establish a clear regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency sector.
The inflows into Bitcoin ETFs over the past 10 days they totaled an impressive $3.1 billion.
Options traders have increased bets that Bitcoin will reach a peak of $80,000 by the end of Novemberregardless of who wins the election, according to Bloomberg.
“The price dynamic remains bullish in the short term and shows no sign of abating, both on a daily and weekly basis. Therefore, pay attention to these technical levels which appear to be very strong as they have held resistance for a good 6 months considering the highs of March, therefore their achievement and eventual breaking may not be something definitive but only a test phase” , he commented this morning David Pascuccimarket analyst for XTB.
Dogecoin flare-up and the DOGE plan on US debt
Then there is the Dogecoin issue. The crypto meme marks a leap of 10% to just a hair’s breadth from $0.16. Trump has called on Elon Musk, a key donor to his campaign, to lead an initiative focused on reducing government spending. This effort is informally called the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), a clear reference to the Dogecoin token that Musk has actively supported in recent years.
The same owner of Tesla and Space Musk predicted at a rally in Madison Square Garden on Sunday that he could cut at least $2 trillion from the US federal budget.
And meanwhile in Italy…
All this while in Italy we continue to talk about taxation on cryptocurrencieswith the 2025 Budget which provides for a bitcoin blow with the rate on capital gains rising from 26 to 42%. In recent days the fringe of those against it is increasing and when the budget law arrives in parliament an amendment is to be expected that provides for the return of the rate to 26% or in any case a less marked increase. In government estimates the measure would bring minimum revenue in the order of 16 million additional revenue.
In addition to the League, some dissent emerges within the Brothers of Italy and from the opposition, the Democratic Party, through Senator Misiani, openly criticized the measure: “With paragraph 2 of article 4 of the budget bill, the executive decided to increase the tax burden on cryptocurrency-related activities by 61%, raising the rate on capital gains from 26% to 42%. A mortal blow for one of the fastest growing sectors globally, widely used by young people.”
According to the last one Geo Report di Chainalysisthe Italian crypto asset market is the sixth in Europe with a value of 54 billion dollars between July 2023 and June 2024. Cryptocurrencies are in the wallets of 3.6 million Italians, 2 million of which through authorized intermediaries.
The technical point on Bitcoin
(analysis by Simone Borghi)
From a technical point of view, the Bitcoin/Dollar it forcefully broke the upper part of the medium-term descending channel. As can be seen from the graph, the gray channel is formed by joining the highs of March, April, May, June and July with the lows of May and September. The upward exit from the channel represents a test of strength for BTC which is now facing the static resistance at $71,400.
