/ world today news/ In the USA, the first primary elections of the Republican Party, which took place on January 15 in Iowa, continue to be analyzed. Let’s recall that they ended with a victory for Donald Trump with a result of 51% of the vote (providing him with 20 of the 40 electors in the state). In second place is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 21.2% of the vote (nine electors), and former South Carolina Governor and again former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley took third place. She has 19.1% of the vote and eight electors.
And today, most pundits tend to believe that Trump didn’t just win Iowa. He took a monumental step toward winning the Republican primary itself.
Yes, it may seem to some that Trump took all the necessary steps long before Iowa – the moment he was nominated. The Republican electorate idolized him, and 50 to 60 percent of Republican supporters were willing to vote for Trump in the primaries. However, there were still some doubts.
First, it was unclear whether election results would correlate with opinion polls. Citizens can tell pollsters who they want to vote for, but who they won’t vote for. A whole series of scandals surrounding Trump (including criminal cases against him) may frighten some of the electorate. To be convinced that Trump will not be allowed in the general election after all – which means that the vote cast for him will go to waste.
At the polls, however, it turned out that the electorate was not afraid and did not change its mind. “Whether you like it or not, many Republicans feel a unique connection to Trump, not just because they’ve had to go to so much trouble to support him in the past. Also because they see how the Democrats and the media have begun to use the institutions of government against Trump in the most outrageous and dangerous ways,” writes Federalist magazine. As a result, roughly the same number of people voted for Trump as polls indicate.
Second, in recent weeks the Republican Party (many of whose representatives do not like Trump) has tried to promote its candidate, Nikki Haley. Thanks to the systemic capabilities of the party and the right work with the media, they were able to push her into second place in the race for the Republicans – albeit with only 11% of the vote. Haley’s supporters, of course, have high hopes for the second state in the primary, New Hampshire, where her approval rating rose from 15% in November to 30% in January. Largely because New Hampshire rules allow non-partisan candidates to be on the ballot. However, to take first place in the “Granite” state, she had to show a good result in Iowa.
He didn’t show it. Not only did Nikki Haley finish only third (behind DeSantis), she also performed poorly overall in a number of key segments of the Republican electorate. Fortunately for Trump.
Unsurprisingly, bookmakers’ odds of Nikki Haley winning the general election after Iowa fell by almost a third, from 10% to 7%. And in a month is the terrible judgment for her. On February 24, the primary election will be held in South Carolina, Haley’s home state, where she served as governor. And there, only 22% of Republicans are ready to vote for her, while 52% are for Trump.
Yes, Nikki Haley is still hoping for a rematch. She hopes that in the end the race will come down to two candidates and she will be able to rally the entire anti-Trump electorate around her. However, this forced another Trump opponent, Ron DeSantis, to leave the campaign. But he’s not out, despite his exposure at Iowa.
DeSantis and his supporting “superpacks” (community organizations that raise money and promote their candidate) spent about $35 million in Iowa in one year. DeSantis himself visited all 99 counties of the state and participated in numerous forums and events. As a result, only second place with an extremely dubious result (about 10% points lower than at the very beginning of the election race).
It looks like Haley will get her goal after all — and DeSantis will be out. He cannot hope for an electoral rematch in the near future. In New Hampshire, DeSantis has only 5-8% of the vote, and in Nevada – about 10%. So it’s possible that DeSantis’ campaign simply won’t survive until Super Tuesday, and the states that are attractive to her will disappear, including due to lack of funds.
However, Desantis himself says that his withdrawal will not strengthen, but rather weaken Nikki Haley. “If my constituents had to choose between Trump and Haley, most of them would choose Trump. They may have certain questions about Trump’s electability and other points, but they are absolutely disgusted by Nikki Haley’s political position,” the Florida governor explained. Simply put, she doesn’t consider herself a true conservative with the right positions on abortion, immigration, gender, etc.
If DeSantis could, he probably would have dropped out of the race himself and endorsed Trump — but he can’t. First of all, because his entire strategy in recent weeks has been based on total criticism of the former US president (in the hope, obviously, of winning over a moderate part of the Republican electorate). Given Trump’s mischievousness, such a departure is unlikely to pay significant dividends for the Florida governor.
But already brought to the other candidate. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who won 7.7 percent of the vote in Iowa and won three electoral votes, has already announced both his withdrawal from the race and his support for Trump. From the podium in the presence of the former president, he said that Trump and only Trump can restore the conservative face of America and protect the rights of ordinary citizens.
So Vivek Ramaswamy, who lost in Iowa, actually won. In the end, judging by the grinning Trump from ear to ear, he appreciated Ramaswamy’s words. Trump said he would “work” with Vivek and possibly give him a position in his administration.
If, of course, he wins the election.
Now it is extremely profitable for Moscow for this to happen. If only because Trump (unlike Haley and Biden) does not suffer from either globalism or Russophobia. Once he comes to power, there will be a diplomatic window to end the Ukrainian war on Russian (that is, reasonable) terms. That is, Moscow and Washington can at least try to agree on something.
And the first step towards this attempt was made in Iowa.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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