Trump Rally Fuels Bitcoin Surge Past $97,500

“Bitcoin expected to rise when it surpasses 97.5k stability”
“If it falls below 89.8k, the decline is likely to increase.”

Bitcoin (BTC), which surged 47% after Donald Trump, who called himself the ‘cryptocurrency president’, was elected as President of the United States, has undergone a short-term correction and is attempting to rise again around $95,000.

Market experts analyzed that if Bitcoin stably surpasses $97,500, the bull market is likely to continue, but if it returns to the $89,800 support level, the possibility of further decline may increase.

As of 17:58 p.m. on the 28th, Bitcoin is currently trading at 133.07 million won ($95,449 based on Binance USDT market) in the Upbit Korean won market, up 0.06% from the previous day. At the same time, the Kimchi premium (the price difference between overseas and domestic exchanges) represents a reverse premium and is -0.55%.

“US inflation indicator rises again… “Be cautious about further interest rate cuts”

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell / Photo = U.S. Fed website Recently, global stock markets showed a slight weakness as the inflation index valued by the U.S. Central Bank (Fed) stopped slowing and rose again. However, it does not seem to have a significant impact on the overall market flow, including virtual assets (cryptocurrency). This is because economic indicators are in line with market expectations and do not interfere with the Fed’s interest rate policy.

On the 27th, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in October rose 2.8% from a year ago and 0.3% from last month. Core PCE was in line with market expectations, but hit the highest level in six months since April of this year. Specifically, service prices rose significantly, stimulating concerns about inflation.

Core PCE is a price index excluding energy, such as food and oil prices, which are highly volatile, and is considered a key indicator that the Fed references before considering policies such as base interest rate decisions.

The market expects that the newly announced indicators will support the Fed’s cautious stance on interest rate cuts. The US consumer price index (CPI) for October, which was previously announced, turned upward for the first time in seven months, and the producer price index (PPI), also known as wholesale prices, also slowed down, raising caution about inflation. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested a speed control, saying that there is a need to be cautious in lowering interest rates.

On this day, U.S. economic media CNBC said, “The core PCE in October showed even stronger figures. “The stock market showed mixed results upon the release of the index, and government bond yields fell,” he said. Bloomberg predicted, “US inflation appears to still be stubborn, and it will likely take more time to approach the Fed’s 2% target,” but added, “The path to (real) interest rate cuts may be complicated by Trump’s policy direction.” .

The possibility of an interest rate cut in December was reflected at 68.2% / Photo = CME Fed Watch capture Meanwhile, the interest rate futures market is raising the possibility of an interest rate cut in December. According to FedWatch of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at 18:00 on this day, the probability that the Fed will cut the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points in December is 68.2%, up about 9 percentage points from the previous day. On the other hand, the possibility of freezing interest rates was reflected at 31.8%.

BlackRock, Bitcoin options ‘brilliant debut’… “Liquidity will increase and institutional adoption will increase.”

Bitcoin spot ETF fund inflow / Photo = Farside Investors The Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) recorded the highest ever inflow of $3.3531 billion (approximately KRW 4.6708 trillion) last week (18th to 22nd). Although this was achieved, there was a net outflow for two consecutive trading days. Recently, news that the Trump administration is expanding the number of pro-virtual asset personnel, MicroStrategy’s additional purchase of 55,500 BTC, and ‘virtual asset grim reaper’ Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), expressed his intention to resign. etc. contributed to the upward trend.

In particular, optimism spread significantly as BlackRock’s Bitcoin options were listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Kaiko, a virtual asset data analysis company, said in a recent research report, “BlackRock’s Bitcoin spot ETF options, which were listed last week, recorded a trading volume of approximately $1.9 billion on the first day of trading,” adding, “80% of them were call options betting on price rises.” “The composition indicates strong demand and a strong outlook from investors,” he said.

82% of BlackRock’s Bitcoin spot ETF option trading volume is identified as call options / Photo = Kaiko Kaiko said, “Several options products recently launched based on the Bitcoin spot ETF have significantly increased market liquidity and accelerated institutional adoption. “It can be done,” he said. “Institutional momentum in the (cryptocurrency) derivatives market is expanding. Last week, the Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was about $22 billion (approximately). “It continued to break all-time highs (30.679 trillion won),” he added.

Outstanding contracts refer to contracts in derivatives contracts such as futures and options that have not yet been settled. An increase in the size of outstanding contracts means that funds are flowing into the market. In particular, institutional investors with large investments mostly trade on CME rather than general coin exchanges.

“Long-term investors taking profits, possibility of increased selling… “Medium-term upward outlook”

Contrary to the market’s optimistic mood, there are also predictions that there may be additional selling pressure from long-term investors. Glassnode, an on-chain analysis platform, analyzed in its weekly report on the 26th that “Bitcoin is very close to $100,000 and long-term investors are engaging in large-scale selling.”

Long-term investors recently sold 507,000 BTC / Photo = Glassnode He continued, “Long-term investors who held Bitcoin for more than 6 months but less than 1 year saw a surge in unrealized profits due to the recent explosive rise and sold 507,000 BTC.” reported. The report added, “If the Bitcoin price rises further, there is a high possibility that long-term investors who have held Bitcoin for more than a year will continue to sell.”

Bitfinex, a global virtual asset exchange, said in its weekly research report, “Since Bitcoin surpassed its previous high ($73,666) last month, long-term investors have sold more than 461,000 BTC so far,” adding, “Although selling pressure is currently increasing, “It is still low compared to the selling price during the bull market last March and March 2021,” he diagnosed. He continued, “The upward momentum may be temporarily stagnant, but it appears to be a ‘healthy breather.’ The market is likely to absorb selling pressure and continue its upward trend in the medium term.”

The overall virtual asset trading volume continues to increase. / Photo = Santiment Santiment, a virtual asset data analysis company, said on the 27th, “On-chain transaction volume increased actively in November. In particular, on the 12th, transaction volume recorded 154.92 billion BTC, reaching its peak since last May.” He also explained, “After Bitcoin reached an all-time high, investors are realizing profits and funds are rapidly moving into altcoins,” adding, “The overall (cryptocurrency market) trading volume surged 32% in the last week of this month.”

Meanwhile, on social networking services (SNS) such as Twitter and Reddit, posts predicting the strength and weakness of Bitcoin are increasing. Santiment said, “Recently, there has been a significant increase in mentions on Twitter that Bitcoin will reach $100,000, which reflects investors’ FOMO (fear of being left out in a bull market).” In addition, he analyzed, “The mention that Bitcoin will return to the 60-79k price is stimulating FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt), but is also acting as a material for the market to rise.”

“Bitcoin is expected to continue its upward trend when it surpasses the stable $97,500 level”

Market experts predicted that Bitcoin is likely to continue its upward trend if it breaks the $97,500 resistance line. On the other hand, an analysis showed that if Bitcoin breaks through the $93,500 support line, the possibility of further decline increases. On-chain analysts analyzed that the market’s buying power is growing as the number of stablecoins flowing into major exchanges in the past month exceeded $9.7 billion (about 13.5 trillion won).

Bitcoin gave up its short-term support line and fell to around $90,000 before starting to rise again. Ayush Jindal, researcher at News BTC, said, “Bitcoin began a short-term correction around $97,500 and is rising again after consolidating the low at $90,736,” adding, “If Bitcoin breaks through the $95,750 resistance line, it will rise significantly.” “This could begin,” he analyzed.

The analyst said, “If Bitcoin continues its upward trend, it could test the $97,500 level and reach $98,000,” but added, “If Bitcoin falls below $93,500, it could reach $91,800 and $90,500.” He added, “If we return $90,000, the decline can expand to $88,000.”

Rakesh Upadyehi, a researcher at Cointelegraph, predicted, “If Bitcoin breaks the ‘psychological resistance’ of $100,000, it could expand its rise to $113,331 and $125,000.” He said, “If Bitcoin breaks below $89,857 (on a daily basis), the optimistic outlook will be invalidated. “It could fall further to $85,000,” he added.

Upadyehi said, “The failure of Bitcoin to break through the $100,000 barrier despite the large inflow of funds from the Bitcoin spot ETF and additional purchases by MicroStrategy may stimulate selling by short-term investors.” “If the breakout fails again, a strong retracement may occur,” he added.

There are also observations that Bitcoin has succeeded in rebounding from a short-term decline and buying momentum is flowing again. Alex Kupchkevich, market analyst at FXPro, said, “Recently, Bitcoin fell about 9% (compared to the peak) due to investors’ profit taking and the cautious atmosphere of the global stock market.” “Expectations that it will end are growing,” he analyzed.

Meanwhile, there is also an analysis that funds chasing profits are moving from Bitcoin to altcoins. He said, “This adjustment in Bitcoin is not because the fundamental investment sentiment (for Bitcoin) has worsened. “(Bitcoin) investors have largely moved to altcoins in pursuit of profitability,” he said.

Altcoin Season Index / Photo = Capture from Blockchain Center He then predicted, “Altcoins will lead the recovery of the current virtual asset market, and Bitcoin will follow suit.” According to the Blockchain Center on this day, the ‘Altcoin Season’ index, an indicator of the strength of altcoins, rose 28 in a week to 61, reaching the highest since last April.

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