Next Tuesday, November 5, the political future of not only the United States will be defined. The presidential elections in which the current vice president and Democratic candidate will compete, Kamala Harrisand the former president and Republican candidate, Donald Trumpwill reconfigure the international scene and the result will define the nuances of geopolitics, as we know it.
The polls predict a very close result between both candidates. The average measurement of FiveThirtyEight – a website specialized in data analysis and statistical forecasts that gained prestige for its political analysis – reflects a scenario of parity among the candidates to reach the White House, but with a slight advantage of 1.4 points percentages in favor of Harris. Other surveys anticipate a tie at the national level: TIPP Insights estimates 48% for both Trump and Harris; Emerson College expects 49% for both and consulting firm ActiVote expects 50% for each.
In parallel with the campaign, user interest in obtaining accurate and up-to-date information about the candidates and their positions has been increasing, which is reflected in a notable increase in Google searches related to the elections. Voters seek to know more about the profiles and policies that candidates plan to implement, the background behind them, and their positions on key issues such as the economy, health, and foreign policy. This growing interest in information seeking highlights the relevance of this event, where the need for accessible and reliable data is crucial for an informed electorate.
To reflect this behavior, Google has a tool that allows it to know the search interest of its users. Google Trends is a platform with which you can analyze the volume and evolution of searches, through the most frequent queries and how they change over time. Through graphs and data by region, Trends provides a view of what is capturing public attention, which is particularly useful for understanding the significance of electoral issues and for detecting changes in voters’ priorities as the election approaches. choice.
Search interest does not define who users will vote for. There can be searches of all kinds, from people who are for or against the candidates or even from citizens who do not know them and want to obtain information to decide their vote. However, there are trends in Google Trends that allow us to see one candidate with a higher search volume than another.
How Trump and Harris appear in Google Trends
At the end of July of this year, the current North American president, Joe Bidendecided to lower her candidacy for these elections and from that moment on the name of Kamala Harris gained strength in the searches. Therefore, we can observe how he has evolved since that moment, to compare him with his opponent, Donald Trump.
If we take the period between August 1 and October 27, we see in this graph how interest in the Democratic candidate (in red line) and the Republican candidate (in blue line) in the United States was growing. It is observed that on average, greater search interest for Trump and that this difference has also increased in recent days. Some higher peaks can be seen, especially driven by the debate between both candidates held on September 10, at which time the two politicians increase in searches. But then, days later, another peak appeared in favor of Trump: on September 15, when authorities reported another assassination attempt against the former president at a golf club in Florida.
Google explains on its official site that “trending stories are collected based on Google’s Knowledge Graph technology, which pulls together search information from those three Google platforms to detect when stories are trending based on the relative increase in volume. and the absolute volume of searches.”
If we look at the search trends on YouTube in the United States, we can see that Trump also has an advantage over Harris and that in recent days this difference is even greater, reaching peaks close to 90 points. These points reflect the moments of greatest interest, that is, they are not total searches, but they help to compare them in a specific period. Searches for Harris, on the other hand, appear more stable, except for some peaks, such as the debate with Trump and the last one is related to an interview she gave to the Fox network in mid-October.
What are the searches like in Argentina for Trump and Harris?
Since August 1, search interest in Trump was also greater in Argentina. The following graph shows a behavior similar to that of the United States and greater peaks in favor of the Republican candidate. In recent days there has been an increase in searches, evidencing the growth of interest a few hours before the presidential election.
In Google Trends you can also compare these two searches at a global level and here a prevalence of interest in Donald Trump is also observed. The most notable peak, after the debate, is also the attempted assassination of the candidate in Florida and the trend of recent days has also been on the rise, as reflected in the graph of the United States and Argentina.
