It’s a disheartening reality for Democrats: Support for Republican Donald Trump has grown vastly since he last sought the presidency.
In his defeat of Democrat Kamala Harris, Trump won a larger percentage of the vote in each of the 50 states and Washington, D.C., than he did four years ago. He won more actual votes than in 2020 in 40 states, according to an analysis by The Associated Press.
Certainly, Harris’ decline of more than 7 million votes from President Joe Biden’s 2020 total was a factor in her defeat, especially in metropolitan areas of swing states that have been the party’s winning electoral strongholds.
But even though national turnout was lower than in the wildly enthusiastic 2020 election, Trump received 2.5 million more votes than four years ago. He swept the seven most competitive states and won a resounding victory in the Electoral College, becoming the first Republican candidate in 20 years to win a majority of the popular vote.
Trump dabbled in places where Harris needed to excel to win a close election. Now Democrats are weighing how to regain momentum ahead of the midterm elections in two years, when control of Congress will be up for grabs again and dozens of governors will be elected.
There were a few notable elements in how Trump’s victory played out:
Trump won in the northern metropolises
Although Trump improved across the map, his gains were especially notable in the urban counties home to the cities of Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia, electoral engines that stalled for Harris in the industrial swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Harris fell more than 50,000 votes — and 5 percentage points — behind Biden’s total in Wayne County, Michigan, which makes up most of the Detroit metropolitan area. He was nearly 36,000 votes short of Biden’s mark in Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania, and about 1,000 votes short in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin.
Not only did Harris’ deficit help Trump carry the states, a trio that Democrats had collectively carried in six of the previous seven elections before Nov. 5.
Trump increased his 2020 totals in all three metro counties, earning more than 24,000 votes in Wayne County, more than 11,000 in Philadelphia County and nearly 4,000 in Milwaukee County.
It is not yet possible to determine whether Harris fell short of Biden’s results because Biden voters stayed home or switched to Trump, or how a combination of both factors produced the evident rightward drift in each of these states.
Harris heavily promoted and campaigned in each, and made her first stop as a candidate in Milwaukee County with a rally in July. These swings alone didn’t make a difference in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but their weaker results than Biden’s in all three metropolises helped Trump, who maintained large margins in 2020 in the vast rural areas of all three states and improved or remained stable in the populous suburbs.
Trump’s team and outside groups supporting him knew from their data that he was making inroads with black voters, particularly black men under 50, more concentrated in these urban areas that have been key to Democratic victories.
When James Blair, Trump’s political director, saw the results come in from Philadelphia on election night, he knew Trump had made inroads into predominantly black districts, a gain that would resonate in Wayne and Milwaukee counties.
“The data made it clear that there was an opportunity there,” Blair said.
AP VoteCast, a national survey of more than 120,000 voters, found that Trump won a larger share of Black and Latino voters than in 2020, and most notably among men under 45.
Democrats won Senate races in Michigan and Wisconsin but lost in Pennsylvania. In 2026, they will be defending governorships in all three states and a Senate seat in Michigan.
Trump won more than Harris in the battlefields
Despite the enthusiasm that Harris’ candidacy generated among the Democratic base when she entered the race in July, she ended up receiving fewer votes than Biden in three of the seven states where he almost exclusively focused his campaign.
In Arizona, he received about 90,000 fewer votes than Biden. It received about 67,000 fewer in Michigan and 39,000 fewer in Pennsylvania.
In four others — Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin — Harris won more votes than Biden. But support for Trump grew more and, in some states, significantly more.
That dynamic is evident in Georgia, where Harris received almost 73,000 more votes than Biden when he won the state by a very narrow margin. But Trump added more than 200,000 votes to his 2020 total, en route to winning Georgia by about 2 percentage points.
In Wisconsin, Trump’s team reacted to the slide it saw in GOP-leaning counties in the Milwaukee suburbs by targeting working-class areas that previously leaned Democratic, where Trump made notable gains.
In Milwaukee’s three largest suburban counties — Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha — which have formed the backbone of GOP victories for decades, Harris performed better than Biden in 2020. She also won more votes than Trump won. in 2020, although he still won the counties.
That made Trump’s focus on Rock County, a working-class area in south-central Wisconsin, critical. Trump received 3,084 more votes in Rock County, home to the former auto manufacturing city of Janesville, than in 2020, while Harris missed Biden’s 2020 total by seven votes. That helped Trump offset Harris’ improvement in the Milwaukee suburbs.
The approach speaks to the strength Trump has had and continued to expand with middle-income and non-college-educated voters, said Trump campaign senior data analyst Tim Saler.
“If you’re going to have to lean toward working-class voters, they’re particularly strong in Wisconsin,” Saler said. “We saw huge changes from 2020 to 2024 in our favor.”
Trump boosted 2020 totals as turnout in Arizona fell
Of the seven most competitive states, Arizona recorded the smallest increase in the number of votes cast in the presidential race: just over 4,000 votes, in a state with more than 3.3 million ballots cast.
That was despite nearly 30 campaign visits to Arizona by Trump, Harris and their running mates and more than $432 million spent on advertising by the campaigns and allied outside groups, according to ad monitoring firm AdImpact.
Only in Arizona, one of seven swing states, did Harris trail Biden in small, medium and large counties. In the other six states, it was able to remain in at least one of these categories.
Even more telling, it’s also the only swing state where Trump improved his margin in every county.
Although turnout in Maricopa County, the most populous in Arizona as it is the seat of Phoenix, fell slightly compared to 2020 — by 14,199 votes, a minuscule change in a county where more than 2 million people voted — Trump he obtained almost 56,000 more votes than four years ago.
Harris, meanwhile, fell more than 60,000 votes short of Biden’s total, contributing to a swing significant enough to swing the county and state toward Trump, who lost Arizona by fewer than 11,000 votes in 2020.
Shift to the right even in strongly Democratic areas
The biggest shifts to the right were not exclusively in Republican-leaning counties, but also in more Democratic-leaning ones. Wayne County, Michigan, moved 9 points toward Trump, tying it with more Republican-leaning Antrim County for the state’s biggest swing.
AP VoteCast found that voters were most likely to say the economy was the most important issue facing the country in 2024, followed by immigration. Trump’s supporters were more motivated by economic and immigration issues than Harris’s, the poll showed.
“Everything is still about the economy,” said North Carolina Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson, a senior adviser to Democrat Josh Stein, who won the North Carolina governorship on Nov. 5 when Trump also swept the state.
“Democrats need to adopt a narrative about the economy that actually works for real people and talk about it in terms that people understand, rather than giving them a lecture on economic policy,” he said.
The 2026 gubernatorial election gives Democrats a chance to test their understanding and approaches on the issue, said Democratic pollster Margie Omero, whose firm has advised Democratic Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers in the past and the presidential candidate. Senate for Arizona Rubén Gallego, winner this year.
“So we have an opportunity to make sure that the people that the governors have a connection with see some specificity and clarity in the focus of the Democratic economic discourse,” Omero said.
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This story was translated from English by an AP editor with the help of a generative artificial intelligence tool.
**The article highlights concerns about the future of American democracy in light of Trump’s victory and the deep divisions within society. What concrete steps can be taken to address these divisions and foster a more united and resilient democracy?**
## Rebound and Reckoning: Examining Trump’s 2024 Victory
**Introduction:**
Welcome to World-Today News. Today we’re dissecting the significant political shifts revealed in the recent presidential election, focusing on Donald Trump’s resurgence and the Democratic Party’s path forward. Joining us today are [Insert Guest 1 Name and Credentials] and [Insert Guest 2 Name and Credentials], both esteemed political analysts.
**Section 1: Understanding the Resurgence – What Factors Fueled Trump’s Victory?**
* **To Guest 1:** Many analysts are pointing to Trump’s successful outreach to traditionally Democratic demographics, like Black and Latino voters, particularly men under 45. How did he manage to achieve this shift and what does it suggest about the evolving American electorate?
* **To Guest 2:** We saw a notable dip in voter turnout, particularly in states like Arizona. Do you believe this benefitted Trump or was it a symptom of voter apathy and disillusionment that transcends party lines?
* **To both Guests:** The article highlights the economy and immigration as key drivers of voter sentiment. How effectively did Trump tap into these concerns compared to Harris, and what does this tell us about the priorities of American voters?
**Section 2: The Changing Battleground – Where Did Democrats Fall Short and What Lies Ahead?**
* **To Guest 1:** The Democrats struggled to maintain their momentum in key urban counties previously considered strongholds. What strategic missteps, if any, contributed to this slippage in traditionally Democratic enclaves?
* **To Guest 2:** The article mentions that Democratic voters might have stayed home or switched sides.
How do we unpack this, and what does it reveal about the reach and effectiveness of the Democratic message and candidate?
* **To both Guests:** Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – states crucial to the 2020 victory – flipped back to red. What factors might have contributed to this shift, and what does this mean for future elections?
**Section 3: Looking Forward – Healing Divisions and Building Blocs for the Future**
* **To Guest 1:** The article suggests a need for Democrats to reconnect with working-class voters. How can they bridge the economic anxiety gap and craft a compelling narrative that resonates with these voters?
* **To Guest 2:** Is there a possibility for the Democratic party to reclaim its lost ground or are we witnessing a fundamental realignment of the electorate?
* **To both Guests: **
Trump’s victory has sparked debate about the future of American democracy. How do we navigate this new political landscape while preserving democratic values and addressing the deep divisions within society?
**Closing:**
Thank you to our guests for shedding light on this critical moment in American politics. The 2024 election has provided a glimpse into a rapidly evolving political landscape. As we move forward, it’s crucial to engage in thoughtful dialog and explore the pathways to a more inclusive and responsive democracy.
