Trump Expected to Gain Ground in GOP Nomination Race on Super Tuesday
Super Tuesday is set to be a pivotal day in the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race, with former President Donald Trump expected to make significant gains against his last remaining rival, Nikki Haley. Trump, who has already won all but one of the first nine contests, is likely to capture the majority of the 854 Republican delegates up for grabs on this crucial day.
“It’s big stuff and it’s the single most important primary day of the year,” Trump emphasized in a video posted on social media ahead of Super Tuesday. The former president is aiming to shift his focus from a primary battle with Haley to a general election rematch with President Biden.
On Super Tuesday, 15 states will hold GOP primaries or caucuses, including delegate-rich California and Texas. Other states participating are Alabama, Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia, Alaska, and Utah. Public opinion polls indicate that Trump holds significant leads over Haley in most of these states.
With more large states like Georgia, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio holding primaries on March 12 and 19, Trump is expected to reach the 1,215 delegates needed to secure the nomination by the middle of this month. His campaign predicted that even under the most favorable modeling for Haley, Trump would clinch the nomination by March 19.
Trump’s dominance in the GOP nomination race can be attributed to his strong base among Republican voters. He has consistently performed well in previous contests, winning double-digit victories in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Michigan primaries. He has also secured landslide victories in the Nevada and U.S. Virgin Islands GOP caucuses.
Heading into Super Tuesday, Trump had a significant lead of 230 delegates over Haley. His campaign spokesperson declared that “this race is over” and that their focus is now on Joe Biden and the general election. Trump also won a major court victory on Monday, with the Supreme Court ruling unanimously in his favor in a legal challenge against Colorado’s attempt to remove him from the primary ballot.
Despite facing long odds, Haley remains in the GOP nomination race at least through Super Tuesday. She recently achieved her first victory in the 2024 race by winning Washington D.C.’s Republican primary by a margin of roughly 30 points. Haley captured 19 delegates and made history as the first woman to win a GOP presidential primary or caucus.
Haley has received endorsements from two GOP senators, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, both from Super Tuesday states. She has maintained strong fundraising and continues to be an option for voters dissatisfied with a likely Biden-Trump rematch. However, Haley has no public events or election night gatherings scheduled for Super Tuesday and has remained silent about her plans going forward.
In addition to the states participating in the GOP primaries or caucuses, American Samoa also holds nominating contests on Tuesday. All states, except Alaska, are also conducting Democratic primaries or caucuses on Super Tuesday. President Biden is expected to win the majority of the 1,420 Democratic delegates up for grabs on this day, edging closer to securing renomination.
Super Tuesday will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race. Trump’s expected gains against Haley will bring him closer to securing the nomination and allow him to shift his focus entirely on defeating President Biden in the general election. As for Haley, her future in the race remains uncertain, but she continues to fight for those who want an alternative voice in the Republican Party.
