As if going first would give him the edge to win the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential election and triumphantly return to the White House, former President Donald Trump announced his decision Tuesday night, just a week before the mid-election. sent and from his Florida mansion to Mar-a-Lago, perhaps thinking that “he who gives first gives twice”.
“America’s comeback begins now,” Trump told his fanatical supporters, dressed in the insignia of those who continue to claim the presidency was stolen from them in 2020, warning them: “This is not a one-man job.” “. for a great movement Will the violent mob return to the streets? A threat hangs in the air.
However, today, there is more of a question about its real possibility when it is in view that, as hard as he has been, many speeches given at campaign rallies in support of candidates for Congress and other positions, the result has been rather mediocre . for his elected officials – deniers of the adverse 2020 outcomes that brought Joseph Biden to the presidency – and the immediate and devastating “red tide” he promised never happened.
Added to this political weakness are the legal problems looming over the former president: firstly, his leading role as instigator in the assault on the Capitol; the scandal of secret presidential documents confiscated by the FBI from his Mar-a-Lago villa; the investigation into election manipulation in Georgia, when during a telephone conversation with the Secretary of State of Georgia, Republican Brian Raffensperger, he pressured him to overturn the results of the November 3, 2020 elections with these words: «The only thing I want to do is this. I just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have because we won the state,” but Georgia was won by Democrat Joseph Biden and with him the presidency.
Two other legal conflicts in New York are the case against real estate group Trump Organization, his business empire, for “fraudulent and misleading asset valuations in their annual financial statements” for the years 2011 to 2021, lawsuit filed by the lawyer of New York general, Letitia James, against the former president and his three eldest children, Donald Jr., Eric and Ivanka; and the 2019 defamation lawsuit filed by writer E. Jean Carroll, involving allegations of sexual assault in the 1990s.
there was no red tide
With more than a week left until the Nov. 8 election, the Republican Party barely managed a majority of 218 seats, with seven seats still to be decided. Democrats have 210, so it’s not a notable difference, but still a majority, even if it could dismantle the Republican pretension to investigate the Biden family, especially his son for his affairs abroad.
When the legislature takes office in January, Democrat Nancy Pelosi will step down as the House chair and current Republican Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy will likely fill the seat, even as the more conservative section of her party questions her support or puts conditions on it.
However, the same Republican claim to control the Senate and to have the power to subjugate the Democratic president ran water through his fingers. The Democrats have 50 seats, and even assuming that in the second round of Georgia, on December 6, the Republican candidate wins, with a tie in that upper legislative house the vice president of the country will decide, given that Kamala Harris presides over that wing capital.
Thus, Democratic senators will be able to confirm Biden’s judicial candidates, and also reject bills passed by the House without the approval of this political field and set their own agenda.
The Hill put it bluntly: “Republicans face internal discord after winning a narrow majority in the House of Representatives but failed to swing the Senate, leading members to question whether the party needs a leadership overhaul.” of the Senate”, and one of the leadership under discussion is precisely that of Donald Trump, although to tell the truth, if he were the re-elected governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, the Republican candidate in 2024, as indicated by his performance at the state polls ; The United States and the world would gain nothing with another ultraconservative at the helm of the empire.
Of course, they won’t be the only candidates. The talanquera has opened and only a few will jump into the ring.
By the way, former Vice President Mike Pence, who may be one of those candidates, said in an interview with Fox & Friends a few days ago that Americans have told him they want to see the Trump administration’s policies, but a leadership reflecting “civilization” and “respect” “that could unite the country around our highest ideals”. In more than one interview, Pence reiterated that he believes there will be “better options” than Trump for the Republican nomination in 2024.
The editorial board of National Review, a leading conservatism publication, wrote, “It’s too soon to tell what the rest of the field will be like, except that it will offer far better alternatives to Trump.”
And what’s worse for the character, polls after this 2022 election show him less popular than Biden, who isn’t exuberant in that chapter of citizen favor either. A Politico-Morning Consult poll released Tuesday found that 65 percent of voters don’t think Trump should run for the White House.
other battlefields
Returning to these midterm elections, another scenario was that of the governors of 36 American states.
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York , Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wisconsin and Wyoming left the following results for all 50 states:
There are 21 Republican and 17 Democratic triplets, a term describing when a single party wins the governorship and a majority in both legislative chambers, while in ten states, control has been divided (Nevada, Arizona, Kansas, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Vermont) and in the two remaining states, Alaska and New Hampshire, the situation is still unclear. Prior to this election, 23 states were triad-controlled Republicans and 14 Democrats.
Qualitatively, the data did not favor the Republicans either, who lost two governors, won by the Democrats.
In addition to electing “public officials” in almost all instances, the ballot papers of some states included issues on which to vote and one of the most controversial was the right to reproduction, or more clearly the right to abortion, which was taken as the flag for Democrats and Republicans, they refrained from expressing an opinion on the campaign trail, knowing what it could cost them at the polls.
In the referendums in Michigan, Vermont and California to protect the right to voluntary termination of pregnancy in their constitutions, yes prevailed, but in Kentucky and Montana, where the initiative presented was to limit this right, the anti-abortion position that As is well known, the US Supreme Court, dominated by six very conservative-minded judges —three of whom were nominated by Trump—, opened the door to the retrograde view last June when it overturned the ruling known as Roe v. Wade, who since 1973 guaranteed the right to abortion in the country, and that ban has been respected by 13 states and others have limited it.
Indeed, in the “toxic political climate,” as some analyzes have described the situation, American voters have generally favored those who have presented themselves as defenders of their democracy, over those who have undermined it with allegations of fraud since 2020 and with their participation in or support for the January 6, 2021, Capitol storming, read Trumpism, even as the stark division of American society is evident in the numbers.
