Jan 24, 2024 at 12:58 pm
The Republican primaries are going well for Donald Trump. Just as in Iowa, he received more than half of the votes in the state of New Hampshire. Yet Tuesday’s result also serves as a warning for the former president.
The Trump train is thundering through the primaries for the time being. On January 15, he received 51 percent of the votes in Iowa. In New Hampshire, where almost all votes have been counted, he appears to end up at 54.6 percent.
In the run-up to the November presidential elections, there are primaries in all American states. These determine who the Democrats and Republicans ultimately nominate as their presidential candidate.
Nikki Haley, Trump’s only remaining competitor in the race for the Republican nomination, is heading for 43.1 percent of the votes in New Hampshire. With this she has to record her second loss in a row. Yet there are starting points for the former UN ambassador, Willem Post, America expert and affiliated with the Clingendael Institute, tells NU.nl.
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‘Loss is not a total defeat’
“Haley’s loss in New Hampshire was not a total defeat,” Post said. While her deficit to Trump in Iowa was still 31.9 percentage points, she is 11.5 percentage points behind in New Hampshire. Haley has therefore announced that she will not drop out of the race, partly because she can count on strong support from moderate and swing voters, Post says.
“These groups voted for Haley in large numbers. These same groups also say that they will not vote for Trump later in the race if he is convicted. That is a warning to Trump,” Post explains .
In addition, there are still more than four weeks to go until the next primary: the one on February 24 in South Carolina, Haley’s home state. “Four weeks can be an eternity in politics. Anything can happen, from health problems to developments in lawsuits. That’s one of the things Haley is betting on,” Post continues.
1:07Play button
Trump’s rival Haley remains combative after defeat in New Hampshire
Haley advocates mental fitness test for Trump
But Haley has other political tools she can use, Post says. “Haley can be seen as a political fighter who does not give up easily. That has struck a chord with Trump. There seemed to be more anger about Haley’s continuation than joy about his victory.”
Trump said in his speech on Tuesday evening that it would be in the “party interest” if Republicans closed ranks. “Haley is pretending she won. Just like in Iowa. But she had a very bad night,” the former president continued.
According to Post, Haley’s fighter mentality is also reflected in her comments about the ages of Trump (77) and President Joe Biden (81).
“Haley advocates a mental fitness test for presidential candidates aged 75 or older. She also wonders whether Trump’s regular slips of the tongue are the reason why the former president did not participate in debates. She also wants to debate Trump herself. Haley is a good speaker and debater. She could score points with that.”
0:40Play button
Presidential candidate Nikki Haley attacks Trump on age
Supreme Court ruling could affect race
But the fact that four weeks can be an eternity in politics mainly has to do with the dark cloud that still hangs over the Republican primaries: a ruling by the US Supreme Court on the question of whether or not Trump may participate in the elections in Colorado .
Colorado decided in December to exclude Trump from the primary elections in that state. Maine did the same, but decided earlier this month to wait until a Supreme Court ruling before making a final decision.
Keeping Trump out: what was it again?
- Colorado relies on a striking rule in the US Constitution. It states that Americans who were involved in “an insurrection or rebellion” are no longer allowed to hold political office.
- Colorado argues that Trump played a role in the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021 – an insurrection against democracy.
The chief justices must reach a verdict quickly. If there is no decision before March 5 – the day of the primaries in Colorado – Trump will ‘normally’ be on the ballot there (and in Maine). Trump’s appeal of Colorado’s decision begins on February 8.
Trump has been able to appoint three chief justices during his presidency. As a result, six of the nine judges are conservative to a greater or lesser extent. The former president seems to count on their support.
“We got three great judges on the court. And there are still some great judges. They will not ignore the voice of the people,” Trump said in conversation with TV personality Sean Hannity. A worrying development, says Post. “It would be sad if it became such a political statement. What then remains of the separation of powers?”
How, if anything, will Trump’s race be affected?
2024-01-24 11:58:00
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