Washington. The massive expulsion of migrants that the president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump, has in his sights, can be very harmful to the economy, analysts warn, especially in some sectors that depend on this labor force.
Such is the case of agriculture and construction, which employ hundreds of thousands of migrants, many undocumented.
Authorities estimate that there are about 11 million immigrants living irregularly in the United States, the vast majority coming from Mexico.
About 8.3 million of them will work in 2022, according to the Pew Research Center, the equivalent of just under 5% of the total workforce.
But in some key sectors they are much more numerous, according to the American Immigration Council (AIC).
“The construction or agriculture industries would lose at least one in every eight workers, while in the hospitality industry, one in every 14 would be deported due to their irregular status,” the entity estimated in a recent report.
The effect would be even stronger in other trades: “More than 30%” among masonry workers, hairdressers and painters, and a quarter in the domestic cleaning sector, according to the report.
A joint study by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the Brookings Institution, and the Niskanen Center recently estimated that Trump’s immigration policy agenda could hold back U.S. GDP growth by up to 0.4 percentage points. in 2025.
3.2 million deportations
The impact on growth would come mainly from the direct effect of having fewer foreign workers in the production of goods and services. And there would be an additional, but smaller, decrease in production due to lower consumption by these groups.
In such a scenario, “legal immigration would be slightly below where it was during the Trump administration in the pre-pandemic era, while law enforcement and deportation efforts would reach levels not seen in decades.”
According to their projections, 3.2 million people would be deported during Trump’s term and net migration (entries vs. departures) would fall from 3.3 million in 2024 to -740,000 in 2025, driven by a sharp increase in voluntary departures.
In a more extreme scenario, which analysts say is unlikely, the impact on growth could be worse.
A recent study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics simulated the impact of expelling the 8.3 million irregular immigrants in the United States.
They estimated that economic growth for 2028 could be 7.4% below baseline estimates, “which means zero economic growth in the United States during Trump’s second term just because of this policy.”
Inflation could be 3.5 percentage points higher in 2026 as hirers raise wages to attract American workers.
How might a decrease in the undocumented immigrant labor force impact consumer prices, particularly in industries heavily reliant on their contributions, such as agriculture and hospitality?
## World Today News: Impact of Proposed Immigration Policies
**Introduction:**
Welcome to World Today News. Today, we’re discussing the potential economic ramifications of large-scale immigration expulsions, exploring the arguments both for and against these policies. We’re joined by two guests: Dr. Sarah Ramirez, an economist specializing in labor markets and immigration,
and Mr. James Miller, a policy analyst at a think tank advocating for stricter immigration controls.
**Section 1: The Role of Immigrants in the US Economy**
* **Interviewer:** Dr. Ramirez, the article highlights that undocumented immigrants represent almost 5% of the US workforce. Can you elaborate on their contribution to specific sectors and the overall economy? What are some potential consequences of a mass deportation scenario?
* **Interviewer:** Mr. Miller, do you agree that undocumented immigrants play a crucial role in certain industries? How would you respond to concerns about labor shortages in fields like agriculture and construction?
**Section 2: Economic Impact of Mass Deportations**
* **Interviewer:** Dr. Ramirez, several studies cited in the article suggest a potential negative impact on GDP growth. Can you explain the mechanisms behind this projected decline?
* **Interviewer:** Mr. Miller, do you believe these studies accurately capture the economic consequences of implementing stricter immigration policies? Are there potential long-term benefits to reducing undocumented immigration that could outweigh initial short-term losses?
**Section 3: Weighing Competing Priorities**
* **Interviewer:** Dr. Ramirez, the article mentions rising inflation as a possible outcome of mass deportations. How might these economic factors intersect with other policy considerations, such as social welfare and national security?
* **Interviewer:** Mr. Miller, what would you say to those who argue that prioritizing economic impact over border security sends the wrong message and weakens national sovereignty? How do we balance competing priorities in this complex issue?
**Section 4: Alternatives and Future Outlook**
* **Interviewer:** Dr. Ramirez, are there alternative solutions to address concerns about undocumented immigration that might mitigate the negative economic consequences discussed?
* **Interviewer:** Mr. Miller, what policy recommendations would you make to address the challenges posed by undocumented immigration while also promoting economic growth and stability?
**Conclusion:**
Thank you to Dr. Ramirez and Mr. Miller for sharing their valuable insights on this complex and timely issue. As the debate over immigration policy continues, it is essential
to consider the multifaceted economic, social, and political implications of different approaches. We encourage our viewers to engage in informed discussions and consider diverse perspectives as we navigate this challenging landscape.
