Favorable weather conditions are present for the development of a future tropical storm in the next 48 hours. This would be the fifth storm of the season and will be named Ernesto. With the help of warm ocean temperatures, it may reach hurricane classification, but there is no certainty yet.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Leeward Islands, as well as the Federation of St. Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla, Montserrat, and Guadeloupe. As of 6:00 a.m. Monday, the Potential Tropical Cyclone is located about 1,040 kilometers (650 miles) east/southeast of Antigua.
PTC 5 remains but the “centroid” is raised a full degree of latitude to 15.1°N and 55.6°W. CNH delays development and now it would only be a storm with maximum winds of 45 mph in Vieques and 50 mph after passing PR. Probability of storm winds (%): SJU 14, Vqs 40. 3-6″ ☔️ pic.twitter.com/W7oIn2pCZv
— John Morales (@JohnMoralesTV) August 12, 2024
The region is going to see gusty winds and potential flooding and landslides, so residents of these islands should prepare. As for the Dominican Republic, it has a high probability of being spared from the impact of this phenomenon. However, as for the U.S., they should be alert to the development of this system, although the National Hurricane Center’s cone now has it curving toward Bermuda.
As had been predicted, atmospheric conditions would change starting in the first week of August. In the particular case of the Caribbean region, wind shear has begun to decrease because we are facing a South Pacific Oscillation (ENSO). This oceanic concept is made up of two parts: El Niño (EN) and the Southern Oscillation (SO). The place where ENSO occurs is in the Pacific Ocean and it is made up of three phases: the cold phase called La Niña, and the warm phase called El Niño and there is an intermediate phase or neutral phase. Now, it is in the neutral phase, waiting for the arrival of La Niña.
As for the Madden-Julian Oscillation (a wave or zone of low pressure that moves around the globe in a period of 30 to 60 days), it has already begun to enter a negative phase for the Caribbean, which weakens the shear winds, facilitating cyclonic development in the North Atlantic.
Another very important factor is the decrease in Saharan dust. This decrease allows for an increase in humidity and, therefore, greater cloud formation. In addition to all this, the Azores anticyclone, which controls the trajectories of hurricanes in this region, is forecast to decrease its pressure to 1022 MB in the next 48 hours, facilitating a curvature of this phenomenon to the north and touching the Caribbean Sea on the northeast side.
