Tropical Storm Gilma: When will it become a hurricane and how close will it be to Mexican lands?

This is the seventh system of the 2024 Pacific season. (NHC)

Sunday morning was formed in the Pacific Ocean the Tropical Depression Seven-E and within hours the system gained strength and became the Tormenta Tropical Gilmathe seventh tropical cyclone of the 2024 season.

According to the National Weather Service (SMN), Gilma was initially 475 kilometers south-southwest of the Socorro Island, Colimaalready 945 kilometers south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur; throughout this day, it has been advancing westward at approximately 22 kilometers per hour (km/h), with maximum winds of 85 km/h and gusts of no more than 100 km/h.

For its part, the National Hurricane Center The United States National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicated in its most recent weather advisory on Monday that Tropical Storm Gilma continues to move in the same direction as in the last few hours and is expected to maintain that general course until the middle of this week.

However, the agency indicates that this system is likely copper strength as it moves out to sea, that is, far from our country and without its cloud bands reaching Mexican territory: “A storm is expected slow strengthening over the next few days. Gilma could reach hurricane force “midweek,” reads the NHC website.

According to the model of possible trajectory released by the National Meteorological Service of Mexico, Gilma would continue as a Tropical Storm this Monday, Tuesday and until Wednesday, August 21 in the afternoon, the strength of its winds is expected to increase and become Category 1 Hurricane. And it would remain like this until the early hours of Saturday 24, when it would be downgraded to a Tropical Storm again. Afterwards, the cyclone will continue to move further out to sea until it disperses.

This is the possible trajectory of Gilma for the rest of this week. (SMN/Conagua)

In addition to Tropical Storm Gilma, the National Meteorological Service announced that it is monitoring three other points in the Pacific Ocean that may evolve in the coming days:

1. Low pressure zone west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula, 3,260 kilometers west-southwest of Cape St. Lazarus, Baja California Surwith a 70 percent chance of cyclonic development in 48 hours and 80 percent in seven days
2. Low pressure area west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula2,270 kilometers west-southwest of Cabo San Lázaro, Baja California Sur, with a 20 percent chance of cyclonic development in 48 hours and 40 percent in seven days
3. The formation of a low pressure zone is expected in front of the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jaliscowith a 20 percent chance of cyclonic development in the next seven days

These low pressure areas could become tropical cyclones in the coming days. (SMN/Conagua)

The National Water Commission (Conagua) and the NHC also monitor the Hurricane Ernesto Category 1 in it Atlantic OceanHowever, this system is located this Monday 515 kilometers south of Halifax, Nova Scotia (Canada), more than 3 thousand kilometers from Cabo Catoche, Quintana Rooso it does not represent a danger to the Mexican coasts.