Tropical Storm Francine formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday and is expected to hit the U.S. Gulf Coast as a hurricane this week.
The system was spinning in the record-breaking warmth of the western Gulf of Mexico early Monday morning, several hundred miles from the Mexico-Texas border. At that point it already had tropical storm-force winds with stronger gusts.
Now a tropical storm, Francine has maximum sustained winds of 53 mph (85 km/h), according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The NHC had previously designated the system as a Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, a classification given to systems that are not yet fully organized but will bring landfall hazards within 48 hours.
Heavy rain, strong winds and dangerous storm surge are possible this week along the western Gulf Coast.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect early this week from parts of the northeastern coast of Mexico to the southern coast of Texas. Additional warnings are likely to be issued on Monday and Tuesday.
The gathering storm in the Gulf comes after a rare calm period in the Atlantic, with no named storms since Ernesto in mid-August, during some of the typically busiest weeks of hurricane season.
Tropical Storm Francine will move northward early this week. The system could become a hurricane as early as Tuesday night, a few hundred miles east of the Texas coast.
Tropical-storm-force winds could reach parts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Tuesday. Before then, storm surge and rough surf could cause minor coastal flooding along the Mexican coast this week.
The worst of the storm’s rains and winds will likely begin in the morning, but storm surge concerns will increase for the United States as the system strengthens and approaches a possible impact late Wednesday.
At this time, forecasts point to a possible impact on the Louisiana coast, but anyone from Texas to Louisiana should start preparing.
Heavy rain is likely anyway, especially in coastal areas of northwestern Mexico on Monday. Heavy rain from the system could also begin in southern Texas on Monday before reaching more parts of the western Gulf Coast on Tuesday.
Tropical showers from the system will bring 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 cm) of rain from northeastern Mexico to parts of coastal Texas and southern Louisiana this week. Totals could approach 12 inches (30 cm) in areas caught under persistent rain. More widespread totals of 2 to 4 inches (5 to 10 cm) are likely across the region.
Texas will receive the bulk of its heavy rain early this week, but some of the most torrential conditions could hold off until Tuesday night for Louisiana.
Tropical rains could bring a “significant” risk of flash flooding, according to the NHC.
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