table of contents
▼The latest dollar/yen exchange rate is bearish due to US recession concerns
▼ Technical analysis confirms the dollar-yen exchange rate… Triangular balance is the key to creating trends
▼Points to be aware of in dollar-yen trading: Continuing bearish trend, beware of reversal in the high price range
▼Next week’s event
The latest dollar-yen exchange rate is bearish due to US recession concerns
The dollar/yen pair was weaker this week on heightened fears of a US recession. The US March ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing business conditions indicators, US employment-related indicators JOLT job openings in February and ADP national employment figures in March both fell short of market forecasts. temporarily weakened to around 130.58 yen. Since then, the price has been sluggish at around 132 yen despite buybacks.
Confirming the dollar-yen exchange rate with technical analysis … Triangular consolidation is the key to creating trends
After confirming the current situation with technical analysis, the low price has been raised with support from the trend line drawn from the low price in January and February this year. However, the top price has cut down and formed a triangle consolidation. Also, looking at the price movement by the 13-week moving average (SMA), you can see that the direction is still unclear. It will be interesting to see which way the triangle will break in the future. If the price falls below the lower limit of the triangle and the psychological milestone of 130 yen, the year-to-date low of 127 yen level will be in sight. On the other hand, if the price exceeds the upper limit, it is possible that the price will target 138 yen. However, there is a possibility that the 26-week and 52-week SMAs are located at the 135-yen level against resistance.
Points to be aware of in dollar-yen trade: Continuing bearish tone, beware of reversal in the high price range
Looking at the daily chart, although there is no sense of direction due to the formation of a triangle on the weekly chart, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is currently in a bearish tone, partly due to the ongoing reversal of the three roles. Watch out for a pullback until it breaks out of the recent high of around 133.76 yen. If the pair breaks out of the same high, there is a possibility that a double bottom formation will occur and dollar buying will intensify. A sense of direction is likely to emerge if the price falls below 130 yen or breaks above the 133 yen level.
important events next week
4/10 Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Inauguration Press Conference
4/10 Speech by New York Fed President Williams
4/11 IMF World Economic Outlook
4/11 Lecture by Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Evans
4/11 Lecture by Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Harker
4/11 Lecture by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari
4/12 U.S. March Consumer Price Index
4/12 FOMC Minutes
4/13 U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims
4/13 U.S. March Producer Price Index
4/14 U.S. retail sales in March
4/14 US March industrial production
4/14 U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index/preliminary figures
About the author
Sohei Uehara, a researcher at Gaitame.com Research Institute, presents forecast price movements and forecasts FX exchange rates in a way that is easy for beginners to understand.
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Researcher, Research Department, Gaitame.com Research Institute
Shuhei Uehara
International Federation of Technical Analysts Certified Technical Analyst (CFTe) Entered the financial industry in 2015 and engaged in customer support. She also works as a lecturer at financial seminars. In February 2022, she joined Gaitame.com Research Institute Co., Ltd. Utilizing her experience and knowledge, she actively disseminates information to individual FX investors. He is a regular on the economic program broadcaster “Stock Voice” and many other appearances. He writes a series of dollar-yen and euro-yen forecasts in Money magazine “Diamond Zai”.
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