Treasury expects economic growth of 2.8% this year, with tourists recovering in the fourth quarter to return 5 million people, pointing out the future ahead of saving policy. After Thailand stepped into a fully aging society, “TDRI” indicates that the economy has grown 3% more than last year, and COVID is expected to end ’65. Thai economy has to rely on “Export – domestic consumption”
Ms. Kulaya Tantitemit Director of the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) revealed in the discussion on the topic “Strategic Plan. The Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the direction of the economy and capital market in 2021 ”that FPO estimates that the Thai economy in 2021 will expand at 2.8% by the end of last year. There were some economic engines that could start to nod their heads.
But when the COVID-19 outbreak Come back again Tourism has returned to negative 100%, however this year there is still hope for vaccines. Therefore, it is expected that tourism in the fourth quarter of this year will have 5 million foreign tourists returning to the country.
For the private sector There is still a need for access to funding sources. And there are still challenges in business operations, however, last year there was money from the government to help both the public and private sectors through the issuance of the Decree to borrow 1 trillion baht. Forecasts that the Thai economy in 2020 will be negative 7-8%, while FPO estimates it will contract at minus 6.7%. However, on February 15, the Office of the National Economic and NESDB) will officially announce 2020 economic numbers. Which has to wait for follow-up again
In the future, however, things need to be taken care of after the COVID-19 situation. Is the aging society, which year 2021 is the first year to step into the full aging society The government takes care of the elderly in 20% of the country, so in this respect, measures must be taken to take care of them. To cope with an aging society, such as supporting savings
Ms. Krita Phao Phichit, Director of the TDRI In-Depth Economic Analysis Program said that the Thai economy in 2021 is expected to grow 2-3% more than the previous year, which TDRI expects that the previous year. This year, the Thai economy has not yet reached the level of 2020, but it is quite tired. Because the epidemic of COVID-19 is not over, there is a new outbreak. Still unable to control the outbreak It could take over 46 months.
The hopes of vaccines are not yet comprehensive for the entire country. Since there are only 28 million doses of the reserved vaccine, in which one person gets 2 doses, only 14 million people will receive the first lot of vaccines in Thailand. Therefore, we believe that this year Thai people will not be vaccinated. Up to 50% of the nation’s population and have to wait 6 months to complete 50% of their vaccinations.
TDRI also sees COVID-19 At the end of 2022, Thais will still have to stay in contact with the COVID-19 epidemic, so they will rely on two main engines: export and private consumption. Different from the past that lived with tourism It is believed that tourists will return in 2023 because they have to wait for coronavirus. As for the hope of Thai tourism among themselves May not return to the original point
By tourism data last month Nov. last year Point out that tourism spending is 60%, so the hope of the tourism engine must be put off. Exports to the US, China, Europe and Japan are only expected to show signs of recovery from 2020.Exports are expected to shrink 7.7%, but this year it is expected to grow 5%
However, for the private sector, there is still no purchasing power. But has the government as a leading hero Through the use of budget from The Royal Decree borrows 1 trillion baht, which still has a lot of money left in 2019, only disburses 40%, still has money left over this year, however, even in this situation There are some businesses that have begun to recover. Compared to December, there was an increase in businesses such as automobiles, electronics, food, and export-related businesses. But still worried about SMEs Less stringy It may not be until the end of 2022, with inequality likely to increase. Which the SEC should focus on such groups
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