Worldwide there are huge shortages of grain. Ukraine is a major exporter, but because of the war, the grain cannot leave the country. The Lithuanian foreign minister today launched a proposal to transport via the Black Sea. He is looking for countries that want to protect the city of Odessa and shipping traffic on the Black Sea.
Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis emphasizes that this is a humanitarian aid action, not a military action. “The countries are not fighting the Russians, they are making sure the world gets the grain from Ukraine. That is an important distinction. The mission would only guarantee that the Russians do not attack the ships and the port.”
City protection
As far as he is concerned, grain transport does not take place under the NATO flag, but countries cooperate on their own initiative to protect ships and the port city of Odessa. According to Landsbergis, that transport requires a naval escort operation.
“That would also include the protection of a city. Because if the port opens and becomes operational again, merchant ships will come and go and the Russians can attack the city. We must not let that happen.”
At the moment it is not possible to say which countries will participate. Only Britain wants to help. Landsbergis: “We are just starting to gather information and make an inventory of how many countries and government representatives would be willing to participate. I would be very grateful if the Dutch government would participate in any way possible.”
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The global grain price has approximately doubled in the past year from 20 to 25 US cents to 40 to 50 US cents. Large companies that buy up grain were confronted with an abrupt shortage due to the war, says Bart de Steenhuijsen Piters, researcher food systems at Wageningen University (WUR). Add to this the drought and the effects of climate change.
De Steenhuijsen Piters calls the plans for a humanitarian corridor a noble action, especially if it will also serve the needs in certain countries. At the moment, he says, it is not yet clear whether that will actually happen.
“The grain is still from large traders in Ukraine. It is probably part of contracts with the four major companies in the world that trade in wheat. Those companies should refrain from buying the wheat from Ukraine. It should then be available.” are for purchase for example for the World Food Program for countries in need.”
‘Destination unclear’
De Steenhuijsen Piters assumes that the negotiations will take place behind the scenes. His expectation is that companies will give in under international pressure. But at the moment it is not certain whether the grain will end up in countries where the need is greatest. “We know there is an action to take it out of Ukraine, but we don’t know where it will go next.”
The need is particularly acute in Africa, where some countries are 70 percent dependent on deliveries from Ukraine. “Ukraine is able to produce very efficiently on a huge scale. For example, people from Tanzania, where you can grow your own crops, eat wheat from Ukraine.”
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Via the Black Sea is the only option. All other options are a drop in the bucket.
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Russia is blocking Ukrainian ports like Odessa – where a lot of grain left the country. The transit to Europe or North Africa is therefore unreachable. Transport by road or rail to ports in Romania, Poland or Lithuania takes weeks. Moreover, this is only possible in small volumes.
Via the Black Sea is therefore the only option, says Kees Huizinga, who has an agricultural company in Ukraine. All other options, he says, are “a drop in the ocean”.
While the world is struggling with shortages, a third of Ukraine’s revenue last year is still in storage, much to his frustration. Transport of grain by land and rail does not help at all. And for the coming year, the shortages will continue to rise, warns Huizinga.
“This year has often not been sown and harvested. What could be harvested is now not available on the world market. Farmers are already talking about not sowing again later. If they cannot sell their harvest now, they will soon have no money for diesel, fertilizer, wages or rent to start sowing before 2023. And then 2022 is not even the worst year.”
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