The support area above $0.6400 is likely to be pivotal today.
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My previous recommendations on September 14 produced a profitable buy trade from rejection on the upside to the support level set at $0.6429.
Today’s recommendations for trading the Australian Dollar/US Dollar currency pair
Risk 0.75%Trades must be made before 5pm Tokyo time on Wednesday.
Sell trading ideas
Take a sell trade after price action reverses to the downside on the time frame immediately on the next touch of $0.6448, $0.6461 or $0.6480. Set a stop loss order 1 pip above the local swing high. Move the stop loss to 1 pip above the local swing high. Break even when the trade is 20 pips in profit. Take 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips of profit and leave the rest of the position to work.
Buy trading ideas
Place a buy trade after price action reverses to the upside on the time frame immediately on the next touch of $0.6422, $0.6415, or $0.6403. Set a stop loss order at one pip below the local swing low. Move the stop loss order to Break-even point is when the trade makes a profit of 20 pips. Take 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips of profit and leave the rest of the position to work.
The best way to identify a classic “price action reversal” is to close an hourly candle, such as a pin candle, doji, outside candle, or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the specified levels.
I wrote in my previous forecast that AUD/USD was likely to have its best opportunity throughout the day as a sell trade arising from a rejection of the nearest resistance level at $0.6456, although I also thought that buy trades from support could be quick trades. Good for taking advantage of simple “scalp” price movements. I was somewhat right about both.
The technical picture now shows a tightening consolidation, which at first glance looks likely to eventually break out to the upside, mostly due to the set of three nearby support levels all above the round figure at $0.6400. However, the price action is starting to indicate a head and shoulders chart pattern to the downside, suggesting that the price will continue to break down below $0.6400.
In the absence of any major data today, the price can fluctuate within its current area, which may give small opportunities to speculate outside of either support or resistance. However, I think the best opportunity might be a breakout to the downside below $0.6400, where the price could quickly drop to $0.6350 where the next lower support level lies.
I would enter a new sell trade if we get two consecutive hourly closes today below $0.6400, provided the reward to risk ratio on such a trade looks good at that point with $0.6350 as a profit target.
The chart was produced by the platform TradingView
There is nothing of great importance today regarding the Australian dollar or the US dollar.
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2023-09-19 07:48:21
#AUDUSD #forecast #today #Weak #consolidation
