The United States has recently become even more important as a trading partner for Germany. Before the US presidential election, the flow of goods is experiencing an additional boom. Apparently companies want to stock up – just to be on the safe side.
Since 2017, the German economy has not had such high export surpluses with any other country as with the United States – and companies’ fears about the US election have given an additional boost to transatlantic trade.
Last year, exports to the United States exceeded imports from there by 63.3 billion euros, as the Federal Statistical Office announced today. That is a record value.
Export surplus of almost 35 billion euros
“In addition, Germany and the USA have had the highest export surpluses compared to all other destination countries since 2017,” it said. “So the difference between the value of exports to the US and imports from the US is not only higher than ever, it is also higher than any other destination.”
This was also the case in the first half of 2024. Here the export surplus totaled 34.7 billion euros. German exports to the USA were 156.2 percent higher last year than in 2003, while imports from there grew by 141.3 percent.
Fear of new protectionism
The upcoming presidential elections are also having an impact on exports: The Hamburg logistics group HHLA is observing significantly increased trade flows ahead of the US election in three weeks, in which Republican Donald Trump will face Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris. “The risk that a new US government will tighten its economic protectionism with further tariff restrictions has triggered a major pull effect,” said the CEO of Hamburger Hafen und Logistik AG (HHLA), Angela Titzrath, to the business magazine Capital.
“It’s incredible how trade with the US has picked up this year and suddenly goods are being transported between the US, Europe and Asia and warehouses are being filled.” Supplies will be ordered before the election outcome and fed into the global flow of goods, said Titzrath.
Which sectors are primarily concerned?
The Federal Statistical Office points out that the USA is particularly important as a sales market for some industries. Last year, almost a quarter (23.2 percent) of all German pharmaceutical exports went to the USA. The proportion has increased significantly in recent decades: in 2008 it was still 12.0 percent. A good 13.0 percent of the machines exported were exported to the United States in 2023, 12.6 percent for motor vehicles and motor vehicle parts and just under 13.0 percent for other vehicles.
During his first term as US President from 2017 to 2021, Trump repeatedly criticized the enormous German surpluses, as did the EU Commission and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). They could lead to imbalances and therefore pose a threat to the global economy.
According to Trump, tariffs will revive US manufacturing. He not only relies on special taxes on goods from rivals such as China, but also on products from allies such as the European Union. He wants to impose tariffs on imported cars from Germany, among others, so that foreign manufacturers build their cars in the USA.
