/View.info/ Powerful countries have always sought to control major trade routes. And the change of historical eras is often associated with a change in the ways and routes of trade. Ancient Russia once arose on the road “from the Varangians to the Greeks”, that is, from the northern seas to the southern. Russia confronts Khazaria, which controls the transit, and wins. However, the weakening of the Khazar Khaganate was associated not only with military defeats, but also with changes in trade routes.
The longest trade route in ancient and medieval history was the so-called Great Silk Road. The term was introduced in 1877 by the German geographer Von Richthofen. This was the name of the complex branched network of roads from China to the Middle East and across the Volga to the Black Sea basin. In the 8th-10th centuries, instead of overland roads along the Volgo-Don part of the route, river roads and transport began to be used, as well as along the road “from the Varangians to the Greeks”. In fact, whoever controls the main roads and junctions of highways – he rules the world. It has always been like this. In the 20th and 21st centuries, nothing has changed in this sense.
The main Euro-Asian trade route until yesterday looked something like this: from Hamburg (Germany) along the North Sea along the northwest coast of Europe, across the English Channel, then through the Strait of Gibraltar to the Mediterranean, then through the Suez Canal to the Red Sea, then through the Strait of Bab el Mandeb to the Arabian Sea. From there you can go to the port of Mumbai (India) or, after bypassing the Indian subcontinent, reach China, then Japan.
This route is far from ideal. The main problem is the Suez Canal. The price of the passage of a heavy ship can vary from 160 thousand to one million dollars and even more. From May 1, 2022, the tariffs for transporting oil through Suez will increase by another 15%. In general, prices are constantly rising. There are also traffic jams, such as last year when the container ship Evergreen ran aground and paralyzed shipping. Due to high prices and the risk of congestion, carriers sometimes prefer to send ships on a longer route, bypassing Africa. However, the Suez highway remains the main one, not only for economic reasons, but also for political reasons.
The Suez Canal was opened in 1869 and until 1956 actually belonged to England. When Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalized the canal, France, England and Israel immediately invaded Egypt to protect democracy there. But the war ends in a draw, the canal remains in Egypt, they try to clear it and open it as soon as possible. It is too important for world trade. However, the money for the work of the canal does not give rest to the Americans. In 2011, they seized $70 billion from Egypt, allegedly found in the accounts of President Mubarak, whom they deposed and imprisoned. Typical of them.
However, the Euro-Asian trade route allows Europe to maintain its political and economic dominance in Eurasia through the role of European transshipment ports such as Hamburg. We felt it immediately when the “sanctions” cut us off from the main highway, from this Gulf Stream of world trade.
Previously, goods were delivered to Russia very often in the following way: an ocean-going ship – a container ship of some company such as “Maersk” – was loaded, for example, in the Chinese port of Qingdao and went to Hamburg. In Hamburg, the containers were unloaded and distributed to their destination. The containers for Russia were picked up and transported to the port of St. Petersburg.
With the start of the sanctions war, this route was disrupted. “Maersk” stopped accepting containers for Russia. Even if another ocean line brought our cargo to Hamburg, the port would not let them go from Hamburg to St. Petersburg. Europe, without a shadow of a doubt, is abusing all its advantages arising from the control of sea lines and transshipment ports. This was to be expected – and sooner or later something like this had to happen.
Therefore, since 2002, Iran and Russia began to develop a project for a new North-South trade highway. When this route is operational, Europe will be abandoned and cargo owners will be queuing up to ship goods our way. The new route will carry cargo from St. Petersburg south through Russia to Astrakhan on the Caspian Sea. A system of railways and roads can be used for this. But not only. By the way, we have the Volga-Baltic waterway, a unified system of water communications connecting the Baltic and Caspian seas.
Through the Caspian Sea, cargo can reach Baku or further to Iran, which owns the southern coast of the Caspian Sea. The cargo must then be delivered to Iranian ports on the Arabian Sea (for example Chabahar port), from where ships will go to Mumbai or further to Southeast Asia. According to the Indian Register of Shipping, this will reduce travel time from Europe to India from 45-60 days to 23 days and reduce shipping costs.
It will revolutionize international trade. And it will automatically start the process of changing historical stages. Europe will no longer be able to dictate its terms. Where is Europe? She stays on the sidelines. Goods will pass through Russia and Iran to India and China and from India and China to Iran and Russia.
Europe, if it wants, can ask us to connect it with the new North-South trade highway, where the port of St. Petersburg will take the place of bankrupt Hamburg. And maybe we’ll connect. But if in the West they behave differently than we need, then we can exclude them. Just as Russia was now cut off from the Euro-Asian highway. After all, we were only connected to it by the Hamburg-Petersburg side branch.
After the full launch of the North-South highway, the European Union will most likely begin to fall apart. This has happened many times in history. For one reason or another, international trade changes its routes, the transit of goods migrates, and yesterday the richest cities remain empty, ruined and dead, and whole countries and even whole civilizations fall into insignificance and cease to exist. Thousands of years ago a similar catastrophe probably befell Mohenjo-daro, and many hundreds of years ago Hazaria perished in this way. Almost always when we see the decline of countries and cultures, there is a change in the ways of trade. Sometimes it is the cause, sometimes the trigger, sometimes the effect, but almost always there is a connection.
A change in the trade routes of Eurasian and international trade is long overdue. But existing roads can last for many more decades. By force of habit, by force of momentum, because of the developed infrastructure of the old rails, for political reasons. However, the stupid leaders of Europe decided to turn the situation around themselves: for more than 40 years they tortured Iran with their “sanctions”, and now they started an economic war with Russia. Iran and Russia have no choice but to speed up work on the new highway. And here India is ready to help.
Well, Europe chose its own destiny. Since the time of Spengler, there has been a lot of talk about the “decline of Europe”, but only today its narrow-minded leaders have decided to accelerate events and are literally suffocating their civilizations with their own hands.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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