MIAMI, Florida – Tropical Storm Rafael formed this Monday in Caribbean waters, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in its 4:00 pm (Eastern Time) bulletin.
Jamaica could begin experiencing tropical storm conditions this Monday night, according to reports.
The cyclone was 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and 395 miles southeast of Grand Cayman Island. It had maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour, and was moving north at 9 miles per hour.
The system is expected to become a hurricane before hitting western Cuba.
SURVEILLANCES AND WARNINGS
Hurricane Warning
Hurricane Watch
- Cuban provinces of Pinar del Río, Artemisa, Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth
Tropical Storm Warning
Tropical Storm Watch
- Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spíritus, Ciego de Ávila, Camagüey and Las Tunas
- The Florida Keys, from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge
- Dry Tortugas
Heavy rain will affect areas of the western Caribbean and southern Cuba until mid-week. Precipitation totals of 3 to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with possible landslides.
Heavy rain could spread into northern Florida by midweek, as well as into the southeastern United States, the NHC said.
“There is growing confidence in continued strengthening until the system reaches Cuba or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico,” the center said.
The forecast storm was expected to approach Jamaica on Monday night and be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday night or Wednesday. It could reach hurricane strength when it passes near the Cayman Islands.
The latest forecast shows the disturbance could pass over western Cuba on Wednesday as a hurricane. Residents of Cuba and the Florida Keys were urged to monitor the disturbance as it develops.
Most forecasts show the potential storm will peak as a Category 1 hurricane, “but conditions over the next few days will favor strengthening, so we’ll have to watch how quickly it organizes, and not may rule out a stronger hurricane,” a hurricane specialist and storm surge expert wrote in an AP analysis Monday.
On Monday morning, the Cayman Islands government offered people sandbags and announced that schools would close on Tuesday.
“Residents are urged to take immediate precautions to protect themselves and their property,” the government said in a statement.
Meanwhile, the Jamaica Observer newspaper on Sunday reported a large landslide in a rural area north of the capital, Kingston, which authorities attributed to persistent rain ahead of the possible storm. No injuries were reported, but a couple of communities were isolated.
Heavy rain will affect the western Caribbean with totals of 3 to 6 inches (7 to 15 centimeters) and up to 9 inches (23 cm) locally in Jamaica and parts of Cuba. Flooding and landslides are possible.
On the opposite side of the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Patty dissipated.
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