Increased bills and gasoline, Italian citizens are worried about the various increases they have to face in this period and, certainly, also in the months to come. Unfortunately, according to an analysis carried out by Facile.it, we will also see an increase in insurance costs.
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In the coming months, the price of TPL policies could increase by more than 10%, translated on average, in 35-40 euros. For the pockets of Italian motorists it would be a tremendous sting of over 1.4 billion euros. In Italy, for today, the insurance premium is still at its lowest, but it could rise again very soon. Facile.it collected the data and put them in relation, calculating the average of the kilometers traveled by the vehicles in circulation, the frequency of road accidents and the ratio between claims and TPL premiums. It emerges that, next year, for an average policy, we could pay up to 40 euros more.
Since May 2021, the average kilometers traveled per day by motorists has increased a lot, city traffic is considerable, and it is very simple to arrive at a single conclusion: Italians, ‘after’ the pandemic, have returned to travel much more with your own car, preferring it to public transport. In September 2021, the mileage was even 40% higher than in February 2020.
Obviously, the number of claims is closely related to that of cars in circulation, which increases again after months of decline. According to official data, in the fourth quarter of 2020 the frequency of claims was equal to 4.0%, down by 31% on an annual basis, while in the first quarter of 2021 it fell to 3.7% (-9.7% on an annual basis) . By analyzing the data for the entire second quarter of 2021, however, it can be seen a turnaround, which brings the frequency of claims to 4.2%, or 23% more than in the same period of 2020.
According to the survey commissioned by Facile.it to the mUp Research institute, this year there were over 19 million Italians who they chose to travel by car for the summer holidays. Most likely, even in the third quarter, the figure on the frequency of accidents is destined to increase further.
And how does all this affect the cost of insurance? According to the data collected by Facile.it, the average premium in September 2021 was still at its lowest and equal to 296.5 euros, 6.5% less than in the same month of 2020 and even 11.5% lower than in 2019; at the moment the increase in road accidents has not yet brought any consequences on insurance rates.
However, this does not mean being ‘out of danger’, in fact Diego Palano, General Manager of Facile.it, explains: “The correlation between claims frequency and Motor TPL rates is historically high but, normally, it can take a long time, even up to 9 months, before the rates adjust to the claims rate. Given that road accidents returned to growth in the first part of the year and could rise further in the coming months, we expect an increase in the cost of policies by the first quarter of 2022 ”.
An increase in the frequency of claims is hypothesized, up to reaching pre-Covid levels. This will inevitably lead to a progressive increase in Motor TPL premiums, that could return identical to those detected before the arrival of the Coronavirus. The individual companies, according to Palano, “could still decide not to apply or contain the increases due to the large savings obtained in 2020”.
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