Polls in the United States show a technical tie between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with both candidates tI have a 50% chance of winning the presidential election. Although Harris maintains a slight lead in the polls, prediction markets give Trump a small lead. This average is calculated from several models, including those of The EconomistFiveThirtyEight, and prediction platforms like PredictIt and Metaculus. Despite the differences between surveys and markets, the difference in probabilities is minimal.
The race remains extremely tight, with Harris narrowly leading in key states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, while Trump has leads in Arizona and Georgia. Although polls show Harris slightly ahead, prediction markets appear to have more confidence in Trump, possibly influenced by the precedent of 2016 and 2020, when polls underestimated his support – as reported by El País.
Image El País.
Other media have different results in surveys:
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