Possible Russian rockets that hit Poland and killed two people are a major escalation and crisis for NATO, says defense expert.
– It is a very serious escalation and it says something about how much pressured and vulnerable Putin is and how much he is willing to risk for Ukraine. Putin is willing to risk much more than the West and hits the West where he is most vulnerable, namely cohesion, Tormod Heier, a professor at the Norwegian Staff School, told NTB.
– It will be the biggest crisis NATO has faced
According to a US intelligence source, Russian rockets hit the Polish side of the border with Ukraine, killing two people.
– The Polish-Ukrainian border areas are pig-infested areas, so it is suspicious that the missiles hit inhabited villages instead of open countryside. So the big question is whether this is a premeditated act, Heier says.
– It will be the biggest crisis NATO has faced since the end of the Cold War. It’s because Russian missiles have violated the territory of a NATO country and killed the inhabitants of a NATO country, Heier says.
According to Polish media, two rockets hit near the border village of Przewodów, where grain drying took place.
I don’t think it triggers Article 5
Tormod Heier, professor of military strategy and operations, head of research at the Staff School, II professor at Høgskolen i Innlandet and lecturer at Försvarshögskolan in Stockholm. Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB
He says the missile attack is in any case a very serious escalation of the situation and something that will force a response from the US and Russia. However, he believes it probably won’t trigger Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which states that an attack on one country is an attack on all.
– I think it is natural to assume that the channels between Washington and the Kremlin are open and work is underway to clarify, supported by Western intelligence, whether this was a deliberate act or an accident. If it turns out to be a deliberate act, it needs to be seen as a serious Russian escalation that intends to do one thing, simply test NATO’s cohesion, Heier says.
– Many people won’t think this incident is big enough to trigger Article 5, he adds.
Poland can request NATO consultations
Nor does Associate Professor Paal Sigurd Hilde of the Norwegian Defense Academy believe that the rocket attacks in Poland will trigger Article 5.
– As long as Russia has not deliberately attacked a NATO country, NATO has no interest in getting involved in the conflict in Ukraine. If NATO gets involved, it will force Russia to immediately withdraw and surrender, or use nuclear weapons, Hilde says.
He believes that Poland will instead ask NATO to convene so-called Article 4 consultations, ie that the parties consult each other.
– If the missiles are found to be Russian, in my eyes Poland is likely to turn to NATO and ask for Article 4 consultations, says Hilde.
– The point is to underline that something serious has happened which poses a potential threat to the security of a Member State, says Hilde.
If consultations are called, NATO will likely follow up with a statement in which Russia is clearly condemned, Hilde believes.
– It is also possible that a decision will be made to strengthen the presence in Poland, for example by other NATO countries sending air or air defense systems to strengthen Poland’s ability to prevent this from happening again.
Believe in more American presence
US Defense Chief General Mark Milley
Heier says that Russia has in any case pushed NATO and the US into a gray area between crisis and war if it is true that it was the Russian missiles that crashed.
– It is in the gray area that the Russian authorities like to have their counterparts, because then they find themselves in a dilemma where you risk aggravating the situation if you respond and show weakness if you don’t, says Heier.
He believes the United States will show firm leadership in the hope of keeping NATO together and preventing the alliance from faltering.
– For the United States, this is a very serious situation
– If they hesitate or don’t provide a response that’s fit enough to post a powerful response, credibility will immediately start to erode, says Heier.
– For the United States, this is a very serious situation, he says.
He assumes that a US response is to show a greater presence near Russia in NATO countries.
– Because if the US doesn’t respond to this with increased visibility and presence, that in itself is a sign of weakness, says Heier.
Defense Operational Command: – Monitors the situation closely
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: Alexei Nikolsky / RIA Novosti/AP/NTB
The operational headquarters of the Norwegian Armed Forces is closely monitoring the situation following a possible Russian missile attack in Poland in which two people have died.
– As you know, we are following the situation closely, says Thomas Gjesdal at the Operational Headquarters of the Norwegian Armed Forces (FOH) in NTB.
According to a US intelligence source, two people were killed on Tuesday when Russian rockets landed on NATO country Poland. Polish leaders are sitting at a crisis meeting.
– Most likely an accident
Associate Professor Lars Peder Haga of the Norwegian Air Force School believes it is very likely that the rocket attacks in Poland were an accident.
– There is little reason to believe that this is a premeditated attack. First, the missiles hit in a place where it makes no military sense to attack. Secondly, Russia is probably not interested in an escalation and more direct involvement of NATO countries in the war.
Haga points out that the missiles hit a Polish village away from major roads and railways, 7 miles from the Ukrainian border city of Lviv.
– Lviv was attacked by many missiles today. A lot of anti-aircraft missiles were fired from the Ukrainian side, so Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles could also have fallen. The wisest thing now is to have ice in your stomach and see what the Polish authorities come up with, he says.
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