Statistically speaking, Chapman still had a good season, with a WAR value of more than 4 for the Blue Jays in the 2023 season, and has consistently ranked in the top 50 in the WAR list for the past three years. In addition, Chapman has won four Gold Gloves and hit at least 25 home runs in three of the last four full seasons. Not only that, Chapman plays more than 140 games per season. Overall, he is a top player. But why didn’t any team sign him? Here are the top three reasons why Chapman hasn’t been signed this offseason:
This article is compiled from Matt Chapman free agency: Three reasons why Gold Glover remains on the market as Opening Day nears
In less than a month (original article published on February 22), the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres will kick off the first game of the 2024 Major League Baseball season in Seoul on March 20 and 21.Many unsigned free agents are hoping to find new owners before the opening game, according to CBSTop 10 remaining free agentsthere are still four outstanding signings: left-handers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, outfielder Cody Bellinger and third baseman Matt Chapman.
Among the four, the one with the least qualifications for major prizes or competitions is none other than Chapman. Snell has won multiple Cy Young Awards; Bellinger has won the National League MVP, but his ups and downs are also well known; he spent most of his career in Montgomery with the New York Yankees and became a major contributor to the Rangers’ World Series victory. Chapman, by contrast, is best known for his time with the Athletics. Since 2019, it has been a pity that he has not been selected to the All-Star Game or appeared on the MVP ballot for four seasons.
However, statistically speaking, Chapman still had a good season, with a WAR value of more than 4 with the Blue Jays in the 2023 season, and has been in the top 50 in the WAR list for the past three years. In addition, Chapman has won four Gold Gloves and hit at least 25 home runs in three of the last four full seasons. Not only that, Chapman plays more than 140 games per season. Overall, he is a top player. But why didn’t any team sign him?
Here are the top three reasons why Chapman hasn’t been signed this offseason:
1. Strike out too many
Before entering this discussion, we must first clarify that Chapman was an outstanding hitter in his major league career. Regardless of the number of games played or the length of the season, he never had an OPS+ below 100 in a season, even in seven seasons of his career. Five seasons over 110. Whatever flaws there are in his hitting (which we’ll get to in a moment), you have to admit that Chapman has found a way to overcome them so far.
In recent years, many teams have paid more attention to the future of their players and used this to determine their salary. It is indeed reasonable to judge salary based on futurity. For example, during this year’s season, you would not be willing to pay Greg Maddux, who had great success in the 1990s, an annual salary of hundreds of millions of dollars. But while focusing on the future, it also puts players with greater risks in the future facing arduous challenges.
Chapman is a good example of a player who, despite a solid hitting performance, had the blemish of striking out too many. Among the 54 primary third basemen with at least 200 plate appearances, Chapman’s strikeout rate of 29.4% ranked fifth highest, trailing only Patrick Wisdom, Josh Jung, Eugenio Suárez and JD Davis.
A high strikeout rate can be expected to mean Chapman misses more often than not. Although Chapman’s swing rate is not as high as Joey Gallo’s, his contact rate (Contact%) has dropped to 70% in three of the past four years, which is indeed a bit worrying.
years batting average strikeout rate 2023 68.9% 28.4% 2022 71.3% 27.4% 2021 67.3% 32.5% 2020 63.8% 35.5%
Seeing that players have a high vacancy rate, teams tend to worry about whether players’ performance will decline as they age and enter their thirties. If you miss the ball so often when your body is at its strongest during your prime, how much will your hitting form decline as you get older, your swing speed slows, or you lose control of the bat. Chapman has entered his 30s, so no team is willing to offer a long-term contract and bear the risk of Chapman’s decline.
2. Chapman’s blind spot
For those unfamiliar with team management, their job involves sending advance scouts to watch film of opponents and collect information to find out what each opponent’s weaknesses are and how to break through them. Tell me, how do you think scouts will report back to their teams when they open sports analysis software and see Chapman’s hot zone?
We’d guess it’s probably something like this: Against Chapman, throw your fastball at a high angle and attack the outside corner more often than low in the inside corner.
Spreading out the data to explain, Chapman’s swing rate in the upper 1/3 of the strike zone (positions 1, 2, and 3) is as high as 47.2%. For comparison, Chapman’s swing rate in the middle third of the strike zone (Nos. 4, 5, and 6) was only 22.6%, and the lower third (Nos. 7, 8, and 9) was only 28.7%. If you’re a pitcher, you’re going to put the fastball at a high angle, and statistically you should get good results. In positions 1, 2, and 3 of the strike zone, Chapman’s hitting measurements were only .138/.312/.220, compared to the league average of .222/.344/.387 in positions 1, 2, and 3. Chapman is indeed a long way behind.
2024-03-04 03:57:19
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