It’s still an eternity before the party’s internal primaries begin in January 2024. But it is already becoming apparent that Trump, who has been the stable favorite in all polls and is more than 30 percentage points ahead of No. 2, Ron DeSantis, will benefit when his rivals tear each other apart and snatch votes from each other in the primaries.
That’s how it was in the 2016 election. Back then, Trump initially had 15 competitors who – like Ben Carson, Mick Huckabee, Rand Paul and Tee Cruz – cannibalized themselves. Trump had enough vote shares around 35 percent to win the first primaries. It was only after three months that he broke through the 50 percent ceiling for the first time.
These candidates have a chance
A short candidate check provides initial information. The most important feature: With the exception of DeSantis, who fluctuates around 20 to 23 percent, all other aspirants are in the middle to low single-digit percentage range – and are therefore latently without a chance.
Vivek Ramaswamy: The alert entrepreneur, who has made $600 million in private fortune in the biotech industry, is at best given outsider chances in one of the first TV debates, which are scheduled to begin in August. The 37-year-old is quick in the head and with the mouth. He sees himself as the savior of a “lost America”. One of his demands: get rid of climate protection legislation.
Tim Scott: The 57-year-old, single South Carolina senator is already considered the warmest candidate. The black man with the big toothpaste smile, who comes from extremely poor backgrounds, is deeply religious. He wants to be a reconciler between the politically hostile camps of the Democrats and Republicans. Silicon Valley billionaire Larry Ellison (Oracle) is its main benefactor.
Asa Hutchinson: With his uncle charm, the former governor of the state of Arkansas embodies the old conservative milieu of the “Grand Old Party” (GOP) before it was hijacked by Donald Trump: little government, free rein for the economy, low taxes, law and order. Even in his own state, Hutchinson has no chance of success.
Nikki Haley: The second representative from South Carolina feels the same way. Haley, until 2017 governor of the state, which is strategically important due to a large black electorate, is considered a flawless opportunist. She worked as a UN ambassador in the Trump administration. She later distanced herself. Today she accuses her former boss of being a loser who has run the Republicans down. Haley (51), daughter of Indian immigrants, is so far the only woman in the Republican field.
Chris Christie: The former New Jersey governor wanted to stand up to Trump back in 2016, but quickly lost out and dropped out early in the primary. The very obese man serves as a steam ram for the party and the electorate, which Trump wants to attack non-stop in the debates. For example, because of unfulfilled promises (wall to Mexico, etc.). This is going to be cute. Christie has long been close with Trump, advising him and even training him ahead of the televised debates with Joe Biden ahead of the 2020 election. Christie is a practiced rhetorical street thug, little more.
Mike Pence: For four years, the mottled-white man from Indiana was as close to Trump as Vice President as few. The storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021 caused an irreparable rift with his ex-boss. Since then, Pence has grown rampant with his merits as a deeply religious family man and experienced, unexcited administrator. The 63-year-old, whom many consider bigoted, anti-gay and intellectually colorless, did not get more than five percentage points in polls.
Ron DeSantis: Florida’s governor has officially settled in with around 23 percent as No. 2 behind Trump (54 percent) in opinion polls. Since the botched announcement of his candidacy on Twitter, the 44-year-old has aggressively returned the polemical fire from the Trump camp. Tenor: losers like Trump should clear the way for the awakening that America so urgently needs. DeSantis tries to dig the water out of his former political foster father by constantly overtaking on the right and pursuing a particularly rigorous, misogynistic line on the subject of abortion. Without a significant increase in the polls, the father of three will probably not be able to suck honey from it.
no chance candidates
Doug Burgum: The software entrepreneur is governor of the state of North Dakota. Nobody really knows why the 66-year-old throws his hat in the ring.
Steve Laffey: The former mayor of Cranston, Rhode Island, is included for self-PR reasons.
Larry Elder: A black radio host who failed to become governor of California. He also walks out of the headlights.
Ryan Binkley: A Texas preacher whose company makes money by buying and merging other companies doesn’t matter either.
Perry Johnson: A businessman from Michigan. He wanted to become governor of the state in 2022, but was disqualified for invalid signatures.
2023-06-04 07:00:00
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