Economic Highlight
Important highlights will be at Results of meetings of major central banks including the FOMC, BOE, and BOJ. In addition, market players will wait to follow important economic data reports from major economies, including CPI inflation and PMI indexes for the manufacturing and service sectors.
**Gold price = COMEX gold contract for delivery in December.
FX Highlight
last week US economic data report That still reflects a stronger-than-expected economic picture. and concerns about the Eurozone economic outlook after the ECB continues to raise interest rates. It has supported the dollar to continue strengthening. We probably think that the direction of the dollar will still depend on market players’ views on the Fed interest rate outlook. Including the atmosphere in the financial market, results of the Fed’s FOMC meeting this week. It may determine the fate of the dollar. If the Fed does not send a clear signal that it is ready to continue raising interest rates (the new Dot Plot reflects that the Fed has finished its interest rate raising cycle), the dollar may fall. However, if the new Dot Plot does not change from before. The Dollar May Continue to Swing Sideways, but Be Careful in Case the New Dot Plot Reflects That The Fed may raise interest rates no less than once this year, and the Fed may cut interest rates by less than 1% this year, which could cause the dollar to strengthen. It is not difficult to reach new highs this year. In addition to the results of the FOMC meeting, we estimate that The results of the Bank of England (BOE) meeting and the results of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting can also affect the financial markets. Especially in the case that the BOJ signals that it is ready to raise interest rates if necessary, which could help support the Japanese Yen (JPY) to return to strengthen. and help slow down the appreciation of the dollar. And in addition to the results of the meetings of the main central banks Market players will wait for important economic data reports from the US, Eurozone, England and Japan. If US economic data is reported It came out better than other countries. It may further encourage the dollar to strengthen. And it is difficult to see the dollar weaken in the short term. As for domestic factors that may affect the value of the baht, we view that the fund flow of foreign investors has shown no signs of returning to the Thai capital market. It may be a factor that puts pressure on The baht has not been able to continue strengthening. Another important factor affecting the direction of the baht is the gold transaction flow. and crude oil transaction flow In the past, such transaction flows have pressured the baht to depreciate. (Flow of purchasing gold and crude oil) In addition, one should keep an eye on the direction of the Chinese Yuan. This may fluctuate according to market players’ confidence in the Chinese economic recovery trend. Recently, the Chinese Yuan has begun to strengthen again. After reports of Chinese economic data came out better than expected. Technically The recent depreciation of the baht may begin to slow down and enter the resistance zone around 35.85-35.90 baht per dollar and the zone 36.00 baht per dollar as the next resistance level. In addition, although signals from both RSI and MACD (Time Daily Frame) indicates that the baht has a chance to swing sideways or sideway up (gradually weaken), but there is a chance that there will be Bearish Divergence signals on the RSI and MACD Forest, reflecting that the baht can turn around and strengthen. In addition, on shorter time frames such as H4 and H1, signals from both RSI and MACD indicate that the momentum on the depreciation side is beginning to slow down somewhat. However, if the baht gradually strengthens, It may still be stuck in the first support zone around 35.50-35.60 baht per dollar and has a resistance level of 35.40 baht per dollar. It is the next important level of resistance.
Gold Highlight
The price of gold moves sideways in the range, fluctuating in the direction of the dollar and the US 10-year bond yield. However, the price of gold was able to rebound to stand above the support zone last Friday night. This week, wait and see. Results of key central bank meetings (Fed, BOE, and BOJ) and keeping an eye on important economic data reports from the US, Eurozone, England, and Japan. We estimate that Gold prices have a chance to rebound and test the important resistance zone like the 200-day moving average (around 1,970 dollars per ounce) if the market reduces the chance of the Fed moving forward to raise interest rates and the chance of the Fed keeping interest rates high for longer. On the other hand, gold prices risk falling. It is not difficult to test the important support zone around $1,900 per ounce. If the market believes that The Fed may raise interest rates no less than once, and the Fed may not be in a hurry to cut interest rates next year. Technically, signals from RSI and MACD (Daily Time Frame) still indicate that the gold price has a chance to adjust, swing sideways, but there is a chance to see a rebound in the gold price. However, if considering the Time Frame that Shorter like H4 and H1 will see signs that The rebounding momentum of gold prices has begun to return. And there is a chance that the gold price may swing sideways or gradually increase to test the resistance zone. We maintain our gold price target at $2,100 per ounce. Makes us still think Market players may wait for the moment when the price of gold adjusts to gradually buy.
Economics Highlight
2023-09-18 01:41:03
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