The first Russian operation to conquer Ukraine’s capital and major cities, and force a regime change, has failed, writes the influential think tank ISW, Institute for the Study of War, in its daily report on the conflict.
The strategy behind the attacks was to carry out “airborne and mechanized” operations to conquer Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa and other major Ukrainian cities in order to force a change of government in Ukraine, writes the American think tank.
Airborne operations are those performed by aircraft and in the air, and mechanized ones are those that come with armored vehicles on the ground.
– That operation has culminated. Russian forces continue to make limited progress in some parts of the country to continue the operation, but it is very unlikely that they will be able to reach the target in this way, writes ISW.
– Poorly planned
Sverre Diesen, general, former chief of defense and chief researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment, says that the entire Russian strategy has so far failed.
– Especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country. On the southern front along the Black Sea, the Russians have made greater progress. It was too poorly planned in terms of both supplies and command and control, he says and continues:
EXPERT: Former Chief of Defense and retired General Sverre Diesen, who is now a researcher at the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment (FFI). Photo: Ole Berg-Rusten / NTB
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– The Russians expected to succeed in a short time, and it was largely improvised. Then the Ukrainians have resisted far more than expected.
Blir stood still
The chief researcher believes that there will most likely be a standstill in the war. It can hit the civilian population hard.
– It does not seem that the Russians have the ability to resume major offensive operations. In that case, they will have to go through a more comprehensive reorganization, with replenishment and compensation for the loss of both soldiers and materiel before they can resume the ground offensive.
In this phase, they will intensify the bombing of the big cities to weaken Ukrainian resistance as much as possible, Diesen believes.
– It will primarily affect the civilian population, with even more dead and wounded, he says and continues:
– Then the question is what Ukrainians manage to do in the meantime and how much support they get from the West. But in any case, the Ukrainians will not have the opportunity to beat the Russians and drive them out of Ukraine. This means that the fronts may solidify over time.
– Show this to Putin!
– Changing strategy
In its latest report, British intelligence writes that it seems as if the Russians are changing strategy. The plan is now a so-called exhaustion warfare.
Such warfare is likely to involve “ruthless use of weapons, resulting in an increase in wounded civilians, destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure, and a growing humanitarian crisis.”
Retired Lieutenant General Arne Bård Dalhaug tells Dagbladet that he has only been waiting for the Russians to change this tactic.
– It is a very unsophisticated warfare, with terrorist bombing and terrorist activities to put pressure on the leadership in Kyiv.
Dalhaug explains that the move is made to protect military equipment, and that you can protect everything from tanks to artillery and crews in this way. The grip indicates that the Russians do not intend to give up immediately, he believes.
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