[Tokyo Grand Prize/Triplo partita da 15 punti]Fixed ‘1st Place’ even though the previous race was completely defeated ‘Regional Ambush’ in 3rd Row Formation | WIDESPREAD

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28.12.2022

Keiichi Obata

On the 29th, the 68th round of 2022 will be held at Oi RacecourseTokyo Grand Prix(GI, From 2000m).

won the Emperor’s Prize this yearMeisho HarioAnd the winner of the Japan Dirt DerbyNightwon the Kashiwa MemorialShonan NadeshikoAnd so on, 6 horses of which 3 horses who won the GI exchange participated in the core group. On the other hand, the local forces also won GI2casino fountainFor example, various members get together and present a scrum scheme.

Omega Perfume, which won four consecutive victories until last year and reigned as the overall champion, has retired and entered a new era at the end of the dirt peak. Anticipate its outcome.

◆[Tokyo Grand Prize 2022 Forecast / Conclusion of 15-point triple training/buying eye]Aim for a hit with “local ambush” in the third row

■ The winner of the Emperor’s Award with great affinity plays the lead role

The main character wins the Emperor’s Prize for the same distance on the same courseMeisho Harioand. At the Emperor’s Prize, he competed against notable members such as Chewwa Wizard, Omega Perfume and Tao Keynes, and announced himself as the new dirty world champion.

In the previous race, the JBC Classic, he finished 5th, but it was a lack of smoothness after the rest, and the fact that he was not good on the counter-clockwise course was the cause of his defeat.

Over the past 10 years, the performance of the horse that won the Emperor’s Sho in the same year at the Tokyo Grand Shounen has been[2.2.1.2]with a 28.6% win rate, a 57.1% tying rate, and a 71.4% double win rate. Yes, affinity is pretty high.

Also, in the JBC Classic of the same year, the riders who finished 1st to 4th in the Tokyo Grand Prix performed well with[7.5.4.6]results, while runners who finished 5th or lower scored[0.0.0.18]one time. multi-win zone,Meisho HarioAlthough the data may seem ominous for him, this time there are no 1st to 4th place finishers in the JBC Classic, and he is the best in terms of ability. Like Omega Perfume in the past two years, there is a high possibility that the JBC Classic → Tokyo Grand Prize will be crowned in direct rotation.

■Discount for Nocturnal in the inner frame of the demon gate

3 yearsNightHe also won the Japan Dirt Derby by the same distance over the same course and is one of the best in terms of results. However, unlike the Emperor’s Award, the affinity between the Japan Dirt Derby and the Tokyo Grand Prize is not very high.

Since it was implemented as a unified GI in 1999, Gold Allure, Kanehikiri and Success Brocken are the only three Japan Dirt Derby winners to win the Tokyo Grand Prize. Additionally, Kanehikiri and Success Brocken have won the Tokyo Grand Prize since they were old horses, making him the first 3-year-old horse to win the Japan Dirt Derby and the Tokyo Grand Prize in the same year. seems to be quite a high hurdle.

Furthermore, the frame order of the second frame is also an unpleasant data for Nocturne. Looking at performance by placing order over the past 10 years, 1st and 2nd place riders have not produced winners with[0.1.2.26]. Similarly, the No. a demonic gate. Considering this, I would like to discount Notturno a little.

■ Stable fillies score higher than unknown horses

In April of this year he switched to gravel, where he won 4 races, 3 victories, 3 finishes and 1 time.Uxbatreasure. This time it’s the first high-prize challenge, and it will be a GI, but it’s attracting attention with its unknown charm.

I have to say the rents here are high, even if the dirt hasn’t hit rock bottom yet. Thirty horses that have finished 1st-3rd in the last 10 years have had at least one GI racing experience (including swap GI) and Uxbatesoro, which has only a track record of outdoor wins, would face one tough battle. Even more, if he’s going to be popular, I think it would be nice to think about the appeal of him and take the plunge and write him off.

Shonan NadeshikoThis year, he managed 8 stock-classified awards[4.1.3.0]and it’s a solid group that’s all about betting tickets. Most of them are all-filly races, but at Kashiwa Kinen he was able to run away and win against a stallion, so even if he enters here, he can compete well.

Since 1998, when the 2000m was imposed, only one filly has won Fast Friend in 2000, and since 2001 she has never finished in the top three, which is a difficult figure for fillies. had the opportunity to participate. Taking advantage of the 2 kg weight difference, she has the power to fight well against powerful stallions.

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