Today, Lee Jae-myeong was sentenced in the first trial on charges of violating election law… ‘The first gateway to judicial risk’ is a major political watershed.

Lee Jae-myeong, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, sits in attendance at the plenary session of the National Assembly on the 14th. Representative Lee is about to be sentenced in the first trial of the Public Official Election Act case on the 15th. Yonhap News”/>

Lee Jae-myeong, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, sits in attendance at the plenary session of the National Assembly on the 14th. Representative Lee is scheduled to be sentenced in the first trial of the Public Official Election Act case on the 15th. Yonhap News

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is one day away from being sentenced on the 14th for violating the Public Official Election Act, which is the first gateway to ‘judicial risk’. The Democratic Party was optimistic about the outcome of the trial, but kept an eye on the impact the sentencing would have on the country.

The Seoul Central District Court’s Criminal Agreement Division 34 (Chief Judge Han Seong-jin) is scheduled to hold a sentencing hearing on Representative Lee’s case for violating the Public Official Election Act at 2:30 p.m. on the 15th. The results of the first trial will be released two years and two months after Representative Lee was indicted without detention in September 2022, and this is the first sentence among four trials related to Representative Lee.

▶When a fine of 1 million won or more is confirmed
Losing his congressman seat and running for presidential election are setbacks
Into the abyss of an unstable political situation

▶When a fine of less than 1 million won is confirmed
The right to hold office and be elected is maintained, but
Illegal act acknowledged, moral blow

▶When innocence is confirmed
The argument for ‘suppression of the opposition’ gained momentum.
Resilience, including the offensive of allegations against the President’s Office

The prosecution is requesting that Representative Lee be sentenced to two years in prison, the maximum sentence in court for violating the Public Official Election Act. In this ruling, if a fine of more than 1 million won is imposed and this result is confirmed in the future, Representative Lee will lose his position as a member of the National Assembly and his right to run for office will be restricted for 5 years. This could be a fatal blow to Representative Lee, who is aiming to become the next president.

If the opposition leadership, which is attacking various suspicions of the President’s Office, has moral flaws, it could also have a negative impact on the lending offensive. If the perception spreads that it will be difficult to find a worthy replacement even if President Yoon resigns, the momentum of the opposition party’s outdoor struggle demanding impeachment or resignation may decrease.

The issue of election costs is also discussed. If Representative Lee is sentenced to more than 1 million won, the Democratic Party will have to return the 43.4 billion won in campaign expenses for the last presidential election that it received from the National Election Commission.

The situation is different if the court sentences a fine of less than 1 million won. This is a scenario in which Representative Lee’s illegal actions themselves are acknowledged, but his position as a member of the National Assembly and his right to be elected are maintained. An official from the Democratic Party said, “Since the party members’ support for Representative Lee is high, even if he is found guilty, if the sentence is minimal, it will be difficult to affect Representative Lee’s control or presidential path.”

Some point out that there will be repercussions if found guilty in some way. Former National Assembly Secretary-General Yoo In-tae said in a CBS Radio interview, “I think (if found guilty) there will be a ripple effect, even if it’s subtle,” and “I don’t think the momentum, like the one during the Daughter of Reform nomination, will diminish a bit.”

If Representative Lee is found not guilty, the opposition party’s lending offensive is expected to gain momentum. As the first test of judicial risk has been overcome, the Democratic Party is likely to launch a counterattack, claiming that the prosecution’s indictment of Representative Lee was the government’s ‘opposition suppression’.

Even after the ruling on the 15th, the political situation may fluctuate once again. Representative Lee’s first trial on charges of perjury is scheduled for the 25th. During Representative Lee’s trial for violating the election law in December 2018, it is alleged that Representative Lee requested false testimony from Kim Jin-seong, former secretary of Seongnam Mayor Kim Byeong-ryang, to the effect that he had been falsely accused in the ‘prosecutor impersonation case’. In relation to this, the prosecution requested that CEO Lee be sentenced to three years in prison. If he is sentenced to imprisonment or higher for perjury, Representative Lee will not be able to run in the next presidential election.

Representative Lee minimized his public schedule that day and focused on preparing for the trial with his aides. Representative Lee had no plans other than attending the plenary session where the ‘Kim Kun-hee Special Prosecutor Act’ was scheduled to be processed this afternoon. He also refrained from directly mentioning the trial.